Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.156
- 40.7%Success rate49.3%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.205
- -0.308EPA / rush+0.100
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.2%
- 38.3%Third-down rate40.1%
- 42.5%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
- 1.36Points / drive2.39
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed-0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 32 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:46 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q1 4:20 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| SEA | Q2 14:07 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 6–7 |
| ARI | Q2 10:47 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SEA | Q2 8:48 | 5 | 35 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| ARI | Q2 6:43 | 7 | 56 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| SEA | Q2 3:41 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–10 |
| ARI | Q2 2:17 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 9–10 |
| SEA | Q2 1:13 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 9–10 |
| ARI | Q2 0:25 | 3 | 18 | End of half | 9–10 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 9–17 |
| ARI | Q3 11:51 | 3 | -16 | Turnover | 9–23 |
| SEA | Q3 11:25 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 9–24 |
| ARI | Q3 11:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 9–24 |
| SEA | Q3 9:48 | 5 | -1 | Punt | 9–24 |
| ARI | Q3 8:19 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 12–24 |
| SEA | Q3 5:06 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 12–31 |
| ARI | Q4 14:56 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 12–31 |
| SEA | Q4 13:04 | 9 | 75 | Field goal | 12–34 |
| ARI | Q4 8:50 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 12–34 |
| SEA | Q4 7:48 | 11 | 48 | Field goal | 12–37 |
| ARI | Q4 1:28 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 12–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 8/13 | 105 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 10/23 | 97 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/31 | 242 | 0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1/1 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 22 | 140 | 6.4 | 4 |
| Maurice Morris | 11 | 4 | 0.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.93