2003 · Week 1

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

9·6

Browns

Cleveland

QB Kelly Holcomb

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

IND -2

Total

48

Model margin

-0.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.100
  • 46.3%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.144
  • 8.2%Explosive rate6.8%
  • 42.2%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate47.9%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.010

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 8–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7CLE @ IND39–38CLE
2020 · W5IND @ CLE23–32CLE
2017 · W3CLE @ IND28–31IND
2014 · W14IND @ CLE25–24IND
2012 · W7CLE @ IND13–17IND
2011 · W2CLE @ IND27–19CLE
2008 · W13IND @ CLE10–6IND
2005 · W3CLE @ IND6–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CLE
INDQ1 15:001260Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 9:051361Field goal0–3
INDQ1 0:53844Punt0–3
CLEQ2 10:52956Punt0–3
INDQ2 6:01520Punt0–3
CLEQ2 2:3822Turnover0–3
INDQ2 1:5320Turnover0–3
CLEQ2 1:42413Turnover0–3
INDQ2 0:2962Field goal3–3
CLEQ3 15:00945Punt3–3
INDQ3 9:451057Field goal6–3
CLEQ3 3:431888Field goal6–6
INDQ4 8:44723Punt6–6
CLEQ4 5:02415Punt6–6
INDQ4 2:391065Field goal9–6
CLEQ4 0:0000End of half9–6

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning27/4321102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James15674.50

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kelly Holcomb20/2918202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
William Green21864.10
Jamel White273.50
James Jackson263.00
Dennis Northcutt1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.08