Closing spread
IND -2
Total
48
Model margin
-0.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.100
- 46.3%Success rate43.0%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.144
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.8%
- 42.2%Third-down rate37.1%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate47.9%
- 2.34Points / drive1.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/43 | 211 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 20/29 | 182 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 21 | 86 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.08