Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.203
- 40.5%Success rate34.0%
- +0.082EPA / dropback-0.265
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.8%
- 41.9%Third-down rate25.0%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate34.8%
- 1.55Points / drive0.94
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 24/38 | 363 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 26 | 85 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Tyson Thompson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 21/34 | 269 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.62
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.29