Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.203
- 40.5%Success rate34.0%
- +0.082EPA / dropback-0.265
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.8%
- 41.9%Third-down rate25.0%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate34.8%
- 1.55Points / drive0.94
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:28 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 3:29 | 2 | 14 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 2:40 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 1:07 | 15 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 8:46 | 3 | 90 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| DAL | Q2 7:43 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 6–21 |
| DAL | Q2 6:42 | 6 | 84 | Touchdown | 12–21 |
| SF | Q2 3:33 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 12–24 |
| DAL | Q2 0:15 | 2 | 22 | End of half | 12–24 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 12–24 |
| DAL | Q3 14:03 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 19–24 |
| SF | Q3 9:24 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 19–24 |
| DAL | Q3 6:20 | 3 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 19–24 |
| DAL | Q3 4:32 | 1 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 19–24 |
| SF | Q3 4:11 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 19–24 |
| DAL | Q3 2:10 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 19–24 |
| SF | Q3 2:03 | 5 | 54 | Touchdown | 19–31 |
| DAL | Q3 0:40 | 4 | 72 | Touchdown | 26–31 |
| SF | Q4 14:51 | 4 | 36 | Turnover | 26–31 |
| DAL | Q4 13:17 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 26–31 |
| SF | Q4 11:54 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 26–31 |
| DAL | Q4 8:59 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 26–31 |
| SF | Q4 8:16 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 26–31 |
| DAL | Q4 6:05 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 34–31 |
| SF | Q4 1:51 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 34–31 |
| DAL | Q4 0:54 | 2 | -1 | Turnover on downs | 34–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 24/38 | 363 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 26 | 85 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Tyson Thompson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 21/34 | 269 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.62
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.29