2016 · Week 4

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

24·17

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DAL -1

Total

44

Model margin

-2.7est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge map49ers
  • +0.126EPA / play-0.089
  • 48.6%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.226EPA / dropback-0.036
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.169
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.07CPOE-5.73
  • 43.8%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.59
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8DAL @ SF24–30SF
2023 · W5DAL @ SF10–42SF
2022 · playoffsDAL @ SF12–19SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ DAL23–17SF
2020 · W15SF @ DAL33–41DAL
2017 · W7DAL @ SF40–10DAL
2014 · W1SF @ DAL28–17SF
2011 · W2DAL @ SF27–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SF
DALQ1 15:00845Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 10:20963Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 6:41412Punt0–7
SFQ1 3:581280Touchdown0–14
DALQ2 13:55713Punt0–14
SFQ2 10:37611Punt0–14
DALQ2 6:52961Touchdown7–14
SFQ2 2:5837Punt7–14
DALQ2 1:501158Touchdown14–14
SFQ2 0:1200End of half14–14
SFQ3 15:00562Field goal14–17
DALQ3 12:18630Punt14–17
SFQ3 8:4637Punt14–17
DALQ3 6:571083Touchdown21–17
SFQ3 1:08623Punt21–17
DALQ4 13:29529Punt21–17
SFQ4 10:5210Turnover21–17
DALQ4 10:381155Field goal24–17
SFQ4 4:11743Turnover on downs24–17
DALQ4 1:49249End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott23/3224520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott231386.01
Alfred Morris7344.90
Lucky Whitehead188.00
Cole Beasley177.00
Dak Prescott530.60
Lance Dunbar122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley34660
Jason Witten79470
Terrance Williams46441
Brice Butler59411
Ezekiel Elliott11190
Lance Dunbar22140

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert16/2319611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde15744.91
Blaine Gabbert12272.30
Shaun Draughn252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley69881
Garrett Celek55790
Quinton Patton13130
Carlos Hyde1150
Aaron Burbridge1250
Torrey Smith1230
Shaun Draughn1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.7%3.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.8%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.71