Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
44
Model margin
-2.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play-0.089
- 48.6%Success rate39.6%
- +0.226EPA / dropback-0.036
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.169
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.07CPOE-5.73
- 43.8%Third-down rate34.6%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 2.52Points / drive1.59
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 23/32 | 245 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 23 | 138 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Brice Butler | 5 | 9 | 41 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 16/23 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 6 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Garrett Celek | 5 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Aaron Burbridge | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.71