2014 · Week 1

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

28·17

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+5.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.117
  • 42.6%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.286
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.068
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -2.41CPOE+5.68
  • 40.5%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 1.44Points / drive2.36
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8DAL @ SF24–30SF
2023 · W5DAL @ SF10–42SF
2022 · playoffsDAL @ SF12–19SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ DAL23–17SF
2020 · W15SF @ DAL33–41DAL
2017 · W7DAL @ SF40–10DAL
2016 · W4DAL @ SF24–17DAL
2011 · W2DAL @ SF27–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–DAL
DALQ1 15:00220Opp touchdown7–0
DALQ1 14:061264Field goal7–3
SFQ1 7:22473Touchdown14–3
DALQ1 5:54312Turnover20–3
SFQ1 4:3112Touchdown21–3
DALQ1 4:251275Turnover21–3
SFQ2 12:591261Punt21–3
DALQ2 5:36411Turnover21–3
SFQ2 3:39964Touchdown28–3
DALQ2 0:39112End of half28–3
SFQ3 15:0030Punt28–3
DALQ3 14:0236Punt28–3
SFQ3 12:111032Punt28–3
DALQ3 7:251787Touchdown28–10
SFQ3 0:29837Punt28–10
DALQ4 10:4237Punt28–10
SFQ4 9:53640Missed field goal28–10
DALQ4 5:371288Touchdown28–17
SFQ4 1:52312End of half28–17

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick16/2320120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore16664.10
Carlos Hyde7507.11
Colin Kaepernick5112.20
LaMichael James200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin89990
Vernon Davis46442
Steve Johnson22330
Michael Crabtree24250
Brandon Lloyd0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo23/3728113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray221185.41
Dwayne Harris199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Harris12560
Dez Bryant46550
Terrance Williams47501
Cole Beasley45420
DeMarco Murray34250
Lance Dunbar33210
Devin Street23180
Jason Witten26140
Gavin Escobar0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

6.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.56