Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+5.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.117
- 42.6%Success rate46.6%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.286
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.068
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.8%
- -2.41CPOE+5.68
- 40.5%Third-down rate47.6%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 1.44Points / drive2.36
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/23 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 9 | 99 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 6 | 44 | 2 |
| Steve Johnson | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/37 | 281 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 22 | 118 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 2 | 56 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
6.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.56