2022 · DIV

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

12·19

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge map49ers
  • +0.031EPA / play+0.084
  • 45.2%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.021
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -1.95CPOE-1.99
  • 46.2%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.26Points / drive2.20
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8DAL @ SF24–30SF
2023 · W5DAL @ SF10–42SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ DAL23–17SF
2020 · W15SF @ DAL33–41DAL
2017 · W7DAL @ SF40–10DAL
2016 · W4DAL @ SF24–17DAL
2014 · W1SF @ DAL28–17SF
2011 · W2DAL @ SF27–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SF
SFQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:01624Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:11744Punt0–0
DALQ1 7:0131Turnover0–0
SFQ1 5:49613Field goal0–3
DALQ1 2:121479Touchdown6–3
SFQ2 9:251041Field goal6–6
DALQ2 3:43732Turnover6–6
SFQ2 1:15740Field goal6–9
DALQ3 15:00623Punt6–9
DALQ3 11:41514Field goal9–9
SFQ3 9:0831Punt9–9
DALQ3 7:17451Punt9–9
SFQ3 5:581276Touchdown9–16
DALQ4 14:58732Field goal12–16
SFQ4 11:031264Field goal12–19
DALQ4 3:0430Punt12–19
SFQ4 2:05630Punt12–19
DALQ4 0:45626End of half12–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott23/3720612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott10262.60
Dak Prescott4225.50
Tony Pollard6223.70
CeeDee Lamb263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb10131170
Dalton Schultz510271
Noah Brown22210
T.Y. Hilton11150
Tony Pollard23110
KaVontae Turpin1180
Ezekiel Elliott2470
Michael Gallup0300

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy19/2921400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell14513.60
Christian McCaffrey10353.51
Deebo Samuel Sr.4112.80
Brock Purdy382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle55950
Deebo Samuel Sr.47450
Jauan Jennings22260
Brandon Aiyuk24260
Christian McCaffrey68220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.23
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+3.95