Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play+0.084
- 45.2%Success rate46.1%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.7%
- -1.95CPOE-1.99
- 46.2%Third-down rate45.1%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.26Points / drive2.20
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 23/37 | 206 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 10 | 13 | 117 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 10 | 27 | 1 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/29 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 5 | 5 | 95 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.23
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+3.95