Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.121EPA / play+0.179
- 48.0%Success rate51.6%
- +0.229EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.061EPA / rush+0.034
- 8.9%Explosive rate13.8%
- +3.68CPOE+4.51
- 49.6%Third-down rate48.1%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 2.67Points / drive2.69
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 14/24 | 153 | 1 | 3 |
| Cooper Rush | 2/2 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 17/24 | 252 | 4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 51 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 67 | 3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.37