2023 · Week 5

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

10·42

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge map49ers
  • +0.121EPA / play+0.179
  • 48.0%Success rate51.6%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.061EPA / rush+0.034
  • 8.9%Explosive rate13.8%
  • +3.68CPOE+4.51
  • 49.6%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
  • 2.67Points / drive2.69
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8DAL @ SF24–30SF
2022 · playoffsDAL @ SF12–19SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ DAL23–17SF
2020 · W15SF @ DAL33–41DAL
2017 · W7DAL @ SF40–10DAL
2016 · W4DAL @ SF24–17DAL
2014 · W1SF @ DAL28–17SF
2011 · W2DAL @ SF27–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SF
SFQ1 15:00855Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 11:1031Punt0–7
SFQ1 10:2038Punt0–7
DALQ1 8:4631Punt0–7
SFQ1 6:541229Punt0–7
DALQ1 0:4714Turnover0–7
SFQ1 0:38214Turnover0–7
DALQ2 14:5632Punt0–13
SFQ2 13:26138Touchdown0–14
DALQ2 13:161178Touchdown7–14
SFQ2 7:451060Touchdown7–21
DALQ2 2:3638Punt7–21
SFQ2 1:5138Punt7–21
DALQ2 0:502-1End of half7–21
DALQ3 15:00539Field goal10–21
SFQ3 11:53890Touchdown10–28
DALQ3 7:20316Turnover10–28
SFQ3 6:011262Touchdown10–35
DALQ4 14:1920Turnover10–41
SFQ4 14:05126Touchdown10–42
DALQ4 13:59333Turnover10–42
SFQ4 12:50513Punt10–42
DALQ4 8:47611Punt10–42
SFQ4 4:52519Turnover on downs10–42
DALQ4 1:5437Turnover on downs10–42
SFQ4 0:1000End of half10–42

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott14/2415313
Cooper Rush2/2800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard8293.60
Rico Dowdle5153.00
Deuce Vaughn372.30
Brandin Cooks166.00
Dak Prescott122.00
Cooper Rush1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb45490
Tony Pollard45350
Jake Ferguson33280
KaVontae Turpin11261
Michael Gallup25150
Brandin Cooks1470
Deuce Vaughn1110
Rico Dowdle0100
Luke Schoonmaker0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy17/2425240
Sam Darnold1/1100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason10696.91
Christian McCaffrey19512.71
Deebo Samuel Sr.5306.00
Tyrion Davis-Price6213.50
Sam Darnold1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle34673
Brandon Aiyuk47580
Deebo Samuel Sr.33550
Christian McCaffrey23270
Jauan Jennings11190
Ray-Ray McCloud1110
Jordan Mason0100
Ronnie Bell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.37