2020 · Week 15

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

33·41

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Andy Dalton

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

SF -4

Total

46

Model margin

+2.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.029
  • 45.8%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.073
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.74CPOE-1.42
  • 39.6%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.87
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8DAL @ SF24–30SF
2023 · W5DAL @ SF10–42SF
2022 · playoffsDAL @ SF12–19SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ DAL23–17SF
2017 · W7DAL @ SF40–10DAL
2016 · W4DAL @ SF24–17DAL
2014 · W1SF @ DAL28–17SF
2011 · W2DAL @ SF27–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–DAL
SFQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:3638Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:58522Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 9:343-1Turnover0–7
DALQ1 9:01524Touchdown0–14
SFQ1 6:391485Touchdown7–14
DALQ1 0:12737Field goal7–17
SFQ2 11:371375Touchdown14–17
DALQ2 5:00629Punt14–17
SFQ2 2:213-2Punt14–17
DALQ2 1:01614Missed field goal14–17
SFQ2 0:2224End of half14–17
DALQ3 15:0037Punt14–17
SFQ3 13:29533Field goal17–17
DALQ3 10:48673Touchdown17–24
SFQ3 7:351170Touchdown24–24
DALQ3 2:0835Punt24–24
SFQ3 0:3536Punt24–24
DALQ4 14:0236Punt24–24
SFQ4 12:31514Turnover24–24
DALQ4 10:2630Field goal24–27
SFQ4 10:08526Punt24–27
DALQ4 7:53620Punt24–27
SFQ4 4:34517Turnover24–27
DALQ4 2:43246Touchdown24–34
SFQ4 2:27947Field goal27–40
DALQ4 0:4000Touchdown27–41
SFQ4 0:34375Touchdown33–41

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens21/3621922
C.J. Beathard5/710010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert14684.90
Jeff Wilson16603.81
Tevin Coleman3113.70
Nick Mullens177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne44861
Brandon Aiyuk913731
Richie James47560
Ross Dwelley22280
Jerick McKinnon22220
Jordan Reed25181
River Cracraft22110
Jeff Wilson0400

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton19/3320920
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1/11200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard12695.82
Rico Dowdle4112.80
Andy Dalton284.00
Noah Brown144.00
Blake Bell122.00
Amari Cooper2-7-3.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb57850
Tony Pollard69630
Michael Gallup34261
Dalton Schultz22141
Noah Brown16130
Amari Cooper23100
Blake Bell11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

40.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.07