Closing spread
SF -4
Total
46
Model margin
+2.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.029
- 45.8%Success rate46.1%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.073
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.74CPOE-1.42
- 39.6%Third-down rate41.5%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.03Points / drive1.87
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 21/36 | 219 | 2 | 2 |
| C.J. Beathard | 5/7 | 100 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 14 | 68 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 4 | 86 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 9 | 13 | 73 | 1 |
| Richie James | 4 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 2 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| River Cracraft | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 19/33 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Rico Dowdle | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.07