2017 · Week 7

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

40·10

49ers

San Francisco

QB C.J. Beathard

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.3est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge map49ers
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.041
  • 43.8%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.001
  • +0.027EPA / rush-0.110
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -0.45CPOE-3.27
  • 43.3%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.75
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8DAL @ SF24–30SF
2023 · W5DAL @ SF10–42SF
2022 · playoffsDAL @ SF12–19SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ DAL23–17SF
2020 · W15SF @ DAL33–41DAL
2016 · W4DAL @ SF24–17DAL
2014 · W1SF @ DAL28–17SF
2011 · W2DAL @ SF27–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SF
DALQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DALQ1 14:00320Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 12:4231Punt7–0
DALQ1 11:24957Touchdown14–0
SFQ1 7:56853Field goal14–3
DALQ1 4:28430Punt14–3
SFQ1 2:15435Punt14–3
DALQ1 0:291296Touchdown20–3
SFQ2 10:26728Punt20–3
DALQ2 5:4933Punt20–3
SFQ2 4:16941Turnover20–3
DALQ2 0:36523End of half20–3
SFQ3 15:00947Turnover on downs26–3
DALQ3 11:12172Touchdown27–3
SFQ3 10:5867Punt27–3
DALQ3 8:271490Touchdown33–3
SFQ3 0:4334Turnover33–3
DALQ4 15:00829Touchdown40–3
SFQ4 10:491365Touchdown40–10
DALQ4 6:14866Turnover on downs40–10
SFQ4 2:5749Turnover on downs40–10
DALQ4 2:13312End of half40–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott16/2523430
Cooper Rush1/2200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott261475.72
Rod Smith8617.60
Dak Prescott4266.51
Alfred Morris2157.50
Cooper Rush2136.50
Ryan Switzer133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ezekiel Elliott13721
Dez Bryant710631
Jason Witten44541
Cole Beasley12240
Alfred Morris1190
Geoff Swaim1170
Rod Smith1250
Ryan Switzer1120
Terrance Williams0300

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard22/3823500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde14684.90
C.J. Beathard5306.01
Matt Breida351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin48800
Pierre Garcon57490
Trent Taylor55390
Carlos Hyde48200
George Kittle12160
Aldrick Robinson11150
Garrett Celek11110
Cole Hikutini1250
Kendrick Bourne0200
Matt Breida0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.34