Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.041
- 43.8%Success rate41.2%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.001
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.110
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- -0.45CPOE-3.27
- 43.3%Third-down rate39.5%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.85Points / drive1.75
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 16/25 | 234 | 3 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 1/2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 26 | 147 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Rod Smith | 8 | 61 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 3 | 72 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 7 | 10 | 63 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 22/38 | 235 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 14 | 68 | 4.9 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 4 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cole Hikutini | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.34