Closing spread
SF -5.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.063
- 41.4%Success rate46.0%
- -0.067EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.059
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.5%
- -4.87CPOE+1.77
- 37.1%Third-down rate43.1%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.68Points / drive2.24
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/38 | 243 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 13 | 17 | 146 | 2 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 6 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 18/26 | 260 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Guerendo | 14 | 85 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.89
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.40