2024 · Week 8

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

24·30

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SF -5.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge map49ers
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.063
  • 41.4%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.067EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.059
  • 7.7%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -4.87CPOE+1.77
  • 37.1%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.68Points / drive2.24
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5DAL @ SF10–42SF
2022 · playoffsDAL @ SF12–19SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ DAL23–17SF
2020 · W15SF @ DAL33–41DAL
2017 · W7DAL @ SF40–10DAL
2016 · W4DAL @ SF24–17DAL
2014 · W1SF @ DAL28–17SF
2011 · W2DAL @ SF27–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SF
DALQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:44770Field goal0–3
DALQ1 7:14523Turnover0–3
SFQ1 4:27526Punt0–3
DALQ1 2:331365Touchdown7–3
SFQ2 10:58833Turnover on downs7–3
DALQ2 6:32741Field goal10–3
SFQ2 2:56649Field goal10–6
DALQ2 1:3037Punt10–6
SFQ2 0:54536Punt10–6
DALQ2 0:1000End of half10–6
SFQ3 15:00560Touchdown10–13
DALQ3 12:5736Turnover10–13
SFQ3 11:30732Touchdown10–20
DALQ3 7:1436Punt10–20
SFQ3 6:09975Touchdown10–27
DALQ3 0:3633Punt10–27
SFQ4 13:3439Punt10–27
DALQ4 11:571156Touchdown17–27
SFQ4 7:58652Field goal17–30
DALQ4 4:25470Touchdown24–30
SFQ4 3:3236Punt24–30
DALQ4 3:0540Turnover on downs24–30
SFQ4 2:43322End of half24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/3824322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott10343.41
Dalvin Cook6122.00
KaVontae Turpin11111.00
Hunter Luepke100.00
Dak Prescott1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb13171462
Jalen Tolbert33440
Jake Ferguson68230
KaVontae Turpin14160
Dalvin Cook11100
Ezekiel Elliott1140
Jalen Brooks0100
Brevyn Spann-Ford0200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy18/2626010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaac Guerendo14856.11
Brock Purdy8567.01
Ricky Pearsall13939.00
Jordan Mason6183.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.4153.80
Patrick Taylor294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle671281
Deebo Samuel Sr.47710
Ricky Pearsall44380
Isaac Guerendo34170
Chris Conley0100
Ronnie Bell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.89
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.40