Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
51
Model margin
+3.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.084
- 45.5%Success rate46.8%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.062
- 10.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.73CPOE+1.99
- 40.6%Third-down rate43.7%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 2.30Points / drive2.44
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 16/25 | 172 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 27 | 96 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 10 | 72 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 1 | 2 | -11 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 23/43 | 254 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 10 | 64 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 5 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.22