2021 · WC

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

23·17

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

51

Model margin

+3.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.084
  • 45.5%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback+0.168
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.062
  • 10.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.73CPOE+1.99
  • 40.6%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.44
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8DAL @ SF24–30SF
2023 · W5DAL @ SF10–42SF
2022 · playoffsDAL @ SF12–19SF
2020 · W15SF @ DAL33–41DAL
2017 · W7DAL @ SF40–10DAL
2016 · W4DAL @ SF24–17DAL
2014 · W1SF @ DAL28–17SF
2011 · W2DAL @ SF27–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–DAL
SFQ1 15:00770Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 10:543-13Punt7–0
SFQ1 9:27828Field goal10–0
DALQ1 4:53620Punt10–0
SFQ1 2:381151Field goal13–0
DALQ2 9:40967Touchdown13–7
SFQ2 5:19441Field goal16–7
DALQ2 3:031236Punt16–7
SFQ2 0:22313End of half16–7
DALQ3 15:00815Punt16–7
SFQ3 10:28726Punt16–7
DALQ3 7:3756Turnover22–7
SFQ3 5:58126Touchdown23–7
DALQ3 5:5038Punt23–7
SFQ3 4:32515Punt23–7
DALQ3 1:341147Field goal23–10
SFQ4 11:53428Turnover23–10
DALQ4 9:37528Touchdown23–17
SFQ4 8:021028Punt23–17
DALQ4 2:42637Turnover on downs23–17
SFQ4 1:42515Punt23–17
DALQ4 0:32456End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo16/2517201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell27963.61
Deebo Samuel Sr.10727.21
Jimmy Garoppolo111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk56660
Deebo Samuel Sr.33380
Jauan Jennings35290
George Kittle13180
Travis Benjamin11170
Trent Sherfield0200
Elijah Mitchell12-110

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott23/4325411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott12312.60
Dak Prescott4276.81
Tony Pollard4143.50
CeeDee Lamb155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz78890
Amari Cooper610641
Cedrick Wilson Jr.510620
CeeDee Lamb15210
Tony Pollard22120
Malik Turner1160
Ezekiel Elliott1400
Blake Jarwin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.22