Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.124
- 42.5%Success rate40.1%
- +0.113EPA / dropback-0.093
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.171
- 9.0%Explosive rate5.7%
- 41.0%Third-down rate35.3%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate39.0%
- 1.68Points / drive1.30
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.066EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 16/23 | 177 | 2 | 1 |
| Matt Jones | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 37 | 98 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Alvin Pearman | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 9/19 | 76 | 0 | 2 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.37