2005 · Week 3

Final / OT

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

26·20

Jets

New York

QB Chad Pennington

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapJets
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.124
  • 42.5%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.113EPA / dropback-0.093
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.171
  • 9.0%Explosive rate5.7%
  • 41.0%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate39.0%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.30
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.066EPA / play allowed+0.002

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NYJ
JAXQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:4530Punt0–0
JAXQ1 9:03729Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 4:37421Punt3–0
JAXQ1 2:29510Punt3–0
NYJQ2 14:46613Punt3–0
JAXQ2 12:071260Touchdown10–0
NYJQ2 5:50945Touchdown10–7
JAXQ2 1:5148Punt10–7
NYJQ2 0:39216Turnover10–7
JAXQ2 0:0720End of half10–7
NYJQ3 15:003-3Punt10–7
JAXQ3 13:042-2Opp touchdown10–14
JAXQ3 12:171268Field goal13–14
NYJQ3 5:0538Punt13–14
JAXQ3 3:3537Punt13–14
JAXQ3 2:02416Touchdown20–14
NYJQ4 14:571048Field goal20–17
JAXQ4 9:4337Punt20–17
NYJQ4 7:3332Punt20–17
JAXQ4 6:36531Turnover20–17
NYJQ4 3:02719Field goal20–20
JAXQ4 1:14618Punt20–20
NYJQ4 0:0800End of half20–20
NYJOT30Turnover20–20
JAXOT37Turnover20–20
NYJOT40Punt20–20
JAXOT334Touchdown26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich16/2317721
Matt Jones0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor37982.61
Alvin Pearman4225.50
Byron Leftwich2126.00

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington9/197602
Jay Fiedler2/31900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin18673.70
Chad Pennington3155.00
Derrick Blaylock362.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.37