Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
+3.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play+0.088
- 45.7%Success rate44.7%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.109
- +0.042EPA / rush+0.067
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- 43.7%Third-down rate36.1%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 2.01Points / drive1.97
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/44 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 13/18 | 152 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 20 | 98 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 56 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Johnson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.25