Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.074
- 41.1%Success rate40.6%
- -0.030EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.185
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.1%
- 38.7%Third-down rate33.7%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.11Points / drive1.46
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.032EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 11–7 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. MIN are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q1 14:53 | 1 | 24 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 14:47 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 13:07 | 11 | 78 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| NO | Q1 7:18 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q1 6:17 | 4 | 69 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| NO | Q1 4:28 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q1 3:07 | 5 | 26 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| NO | Q1 0:33 | 4 | 32 | Punt | 0–17 |
| MIN | Q2 14:04 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–17 |
| NO | Q2 10:43 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–17 |
| MIN | Q2 8:36 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–17 |
| NO | Q2 6:49 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 0–23 |
| MIN | Q2 5:44 | 1 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| NO | Q2 5:37 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| MIN | Q2 1:54 | 11 | 41 | End of half | 6–24 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 40 | Punt | 6–24 |
| NO | Q3 9:12 | 8 | 81 | Field goal | 9–24 |
| MIN | Q3 5:38 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 9–24 |
| NO | Q3 2:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 9–24 |
| MIN | Q3 1:32 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 9–24 |
| NO | Q4 14:52 | 10 | 54 | Touchdown | 16–24 |
| MIN | Q4 11:40 | 10 | 35 | Field goal | 16–27 |
| NO | Q4 6:17 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 16–27 |
| MIN | Q4 6:05 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 16–30 |
| NO | Q4 4:29 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 16–30 |
| MIN | Q4 3:38 | 6 | 11 | Field goal | 16–33 |
| NO | Q4 1:08 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 16–33 |
| MIN | Q4 0:55 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 16–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 12/32 | 199 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/29 | 300 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.39
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.12