Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.074
- 41.1%Success rate40.6%
- -0.030EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.185
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.1%
- 38.7%Third-down rate33.7%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.11Points / drive1.46
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.032EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. MIN are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 12/32 | 199 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/29 | 300 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.39
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.12