Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
-1.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Vikingsedge mapSaints
- +0.055EPA / play+0.030
- 37.7%Success rate44.3%
- +0.208EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.125EPA / rush-0.075
- 3.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- -4.89CPOE-1.21
- 57.1%Third-down rate47.1%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.90Points / drive2.20
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. NO are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.18