2026 · Week 5

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kyler Murray

23·13

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

Caesars Superdome · dome

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSaints
  • -0.099EPA / play-0.031
  • 36.7%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.169
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +0.39CPOE+0.08
  • 38.6%Third-down rate43.6%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate76.7%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.19
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 11–7 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. NO are 8-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10NO @ MIN19–27MIN
2022 · W4MIN @ NO28–25MIN
2020 · W16MIN @ NO33–52NO
2019 · playoffsMIN @ NO26–20MIN
2018 · W8NO @ MIN30–20NO
2017 · playoffsNO @ MIN24–29MIN
2017 · W1NO @ MIN19–29MIN
2014 · W3MIN @ NO9–20NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NO
MINQ1 15:00956Field goal3–0
NOQ1 9:0431Punt3–0
MINQ1 7:371163Turnover3–0
NOQ1 0:411571Touchdown3–7
MINQ2 8:2338Punt3–7
NOQ2 6:0735Punt3–7
MINQ2 4:4146Punt3–7
NOQ2 2:5837Punt3–7
MINQ2 1:49533Field goal6–7
NOQ3 15:0000Touchdown6–7
MINQ3 14:53637Touchdown13–7
NOQ3 12:06726Turnover13–7
MINQ3 7:351039Opp touchdown13–13
MINQ3 2:34670Touchdown20–13
NOQ4 14:0642Punt20–13
MINQ4 12:49831Field goal23–13
NOQ4 7:01732Turnover on downs23–13
MINQ4 4:5738Punt23–13
NOQ4 3:533-2Turnover23–13
MINQ4 2:49216End of half23–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray24/3022910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones251134.51
Kyler Murray10515.10
Justin Jefferson1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson67791
Gavin Bartholomew56330
Jeshaun Jones11320
Tai Felton23270
Myles Price34200
DeeJay Dallas11110
Ben Yurosek11100
T.J. Hockenson1170
Demond Claiborne1160
Aaron Jones3340
Jauan Jennings0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough16/259602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kendre Miller10303.01
CJ Donaldson4133.30
Alvin Kamara3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave46460
Devaughn Vele46260
Juwan Johnson45160
Noah Fant1170
CJ Donaldson1170
Bryce Lance0300
Alvin Kamara22-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.41