2017 · DIV

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

24·29

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -5.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.9est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapVikings
  • +0.092EPA / play+0.026
  • 45.3%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback+0.155
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.142
  • 12.4%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +4.74CPOE+3.66
  • 38.5%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.37Points / drive2.02
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 11–7 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. MIN are 10-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5MIN @ NO23–13MIN
2023 · W10NO @ MIN19–27MIN
2022 · W4MIN @ NO28–25MIN
2020 · W16MIN @ NO33–52NO
2019 · playoffsMIN @ NO26–20MIN
2018 · W8NO @ MIN30–20NO
2017 · W1NO @ MIN19–29MIN
2014 · W3MIN @ NO9–20NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–MIN
NOQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
MINQ1 14:00855Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 9:45519Punt0–7
MINQ1 7:09825Field goal0–10
NOQ1 4:4239Punt0–10
MINQ1 3:1539Punt0–10
NOQ1 1:1410Turnover0–10
MINQ1 1:061465Touchdown0–17
NOQ2 9:58966Turnover0–17
MINQ2 5:3239Punt0–17
NOQ2 3:081151Missed field goal0–17
MINQ2 0:2136Missed field goal0–17
NOQ2 0:0200End of half0–17
MINQ3 15:001135Punt0–17
NOQ3 7:581280Touchdown7–17
MINQ3 1:1810Turnover7–17
NOQ3 1:09630Touchdown14–17
MINQ4 13:09644Field goal14–20
NOQ4 10:1239Punt14–20
MINQ4 8:59935Punt14–20
NOQ4 5:21440Touchdown21–20
MINQ4 3:01840Field goal21–23
NOQ4 1:291050Field goal24–23
MINQ4 0:25480Touchdown24–29

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees25/4029432
Willie Snead0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara11433.90
Mark Ingram10252.50
Ted Ginn11111.00
Drew Brees210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas713852
Ted Ginn811720
Alvin Kamara47621
Josh Hill36540
Willie Snead23180
Mark Ingram1130

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum25/4031811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray19502.61
Jerick McKinnon8344.31
Case Keenum144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs6101371
Adam Thielen69740
Jarius Wright36560
Kyle Rudolph58280
Latavius Murray22170
Jerick McKinnon3460
Michael Floyd0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.89