2018 · Week 8

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

30·20

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -2.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapVikings
  • +0.156EPA / play-0.075
  • 49.9%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.284EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.011EPA / rush-0.203
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +5.42CPOE+2.40
  • 46.3%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 2.94Points / drive1.57
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 11–7 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. MIN are 10-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5MIN @ NO23–13MIN
2023 · W10NO @ MIN19–27MIN
2022 · W4MIN @ NO28–25MIN
2020 · W16MIN @ NO33–52NO
2019 · playoffsMIN @ NO26–20MIN
2017 · playoffsNO @ MIN24–29MIN
2017 · W1NO @ MIN19–29MIN
2014 · W3MIN @ NO9–20NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–MIN
NOQ1 15:00881Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 10:331596Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 3:1633Punt7–7
MINQ1 1:02867Touchdown7–13
NOQ2 11:57728Field goal10–13
MINQ2 7:27526Punt10–13
NOQ2 4:21422Turnover10–13
MINQ2 3:03946Turnover10–13
NOQ2 0:57218Touchdown17–13
MINQ2 0:3017End of half17–13
MINQ3 15:00620Turnover on downs17–13
NOQ3 12:28835Field goal20–13
MINQ3 8:19519Opp touchdown27–13
MINQ3 5:58524Punt27–13
NOQ3 2:501465Field goal30–13
MINQ4 9:351465Touchdown30–20
NOQ4 4:26718Punt30–20
MINQ4 1:09453End of half30–20

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees18/2312011
Taysom Hill1/14400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram13634.80
Alvin Kamara13453.51
Taysom Hill3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas56810
Alvin Kamara78311
Mark Ingram33290
Tre'Quan Smith34180
Taysom Hill1150
Austin Carr0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins31/4135921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray13564.31
Adam Thielen11515.00
Mike Boone3113.70
Kirk Cousins231.50
Roc Thomas1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs10111191
Adam Thielen771031
Kyle Rudolph47390
Latavius Murray56390
Laquon Treadwell35250
Aldrick Robinson12190
Roc Thomas11150
David Morgan0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.79