Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play-0.075
- 49.9%Success rate43.2%
- +0.284EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.011EPA / rush-0.203
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- +5.42CPOE+2.40
- 46.3%Third-down rate36.2%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 2.94Points / drive1.57
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. MIN are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 18/23 | 120 | 1 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 8 | 31 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 31/41 | 359 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Roc Thomas | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 11 | 119 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 7 | 103 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Roc Thomas | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| David Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.95
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79