Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
42
Model margin
+1.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.037
- 45.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.109
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.66CPOE+1.61
- 40.7%Third-down rate40.9%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.04Points / drive1.59
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. NO are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 25/38 | 273 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 10 | 13 | 147 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/28 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 4 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.13