2019 · WC

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

26·20

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -7.5

Total

50

Model margin

+2.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSaints
  • +0.056EPA / play+0.084
  • 42.1%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.172
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.067
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +3.53CPOE+3.92
  • 44.0%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.45
  • 1.8%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 11–7 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. NO are 8-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5MIN @ NO23–13MIN
2023 · W10NO @ MIN19–27MIN
2022 · W4MIN @ NO28–25MIN
2020 · W16MIN @ NO33–52NO
2018 · W8NO @ MIN30–20NO
2017 · playoffsNO @ MIN24–29MIN
2017 · W1NO @ MIN19–29MIN
2014 · W3MIN @ NO9–20NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NO
MINQ1 15:00312Turnover0–0
NOQ1 14:10821Field goal0–3
MINQ1 9:521050Field goal3–3
NOQ1 4:0534Punt3–3
MINQ1 2:36517Punt3–3
NOQ2 14:52418Punt3–3
MINQ2 13:0436Punt3–3
NOQ2 11:30470Touchdown3–10
MINQ2 9:181272Field goal6–10
NOQ2 2:5434Turnover6–10
MINQ2 2:03745Touchdown13–10
NOQ2 0:23120Missed field goal13–10
NOQ3 15:00615Punt13–10
MINQ3 10:40414Punt13–10
NOQ3 8:353-1Punt13–10
MINQ3 7:00954Touchdown20–10
NOQ3 3:2337Punt20–10
MINQ3 1:4137Punt20–10
NOQ4 14:53885Touchdown20–17
MINQ4 10:31614Punt20–17
NOQ4 6:49637Turnover20–17
MINQ4 4:186-3Punt20–17
NOQ4 1:55644Field goal20–20
MINQ4 0:0200End of half20–20
MINOT975Touchdown26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins19/3124210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook28943.42
Alexander Mattison5204.00
Ameer Abdullah199.00
Stefon Diggs284.00
Adam Thielen133.00
Kirk Cousins2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen791290
Dalvin Cook35360
Kyle Rudolph47311
Stefon Diggs23190
Bisi Johnson23170
Alexander Mattison12100
Tyler Conklin0100
Alexander Hollins0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/3320811
Taysom Hill1/15000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill45012.50
Latavius Murray5214.20
Alvin Kamara7213.01
Drew Brees155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas78700
Jared Cook55540
Deonte Harty11500
Alvin Kamara89340
Taysom Hill22251
Ted Ginn12180
Latavius Murray1240
Josh Hill2330
Tre'Quan Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.83