Closing spread
NO -7.5
Total
50
Model margin
+2.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play+0.084
- 42.1%Success rate47.0%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.172
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.067
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- +3.53CPOE+3.92
- 44.0%Third-down rate43.9%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.31Points / drive2.45
- 1.8%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. NO are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 19/31 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 28 | 94 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 9 | 129 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alexander Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/33 | 208 | 1 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 50 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 7 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 50 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.83