Closing spread
NO -3
Total
41
Model margin
-1.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play-0.025
- 42.2%Success rate43.2%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.94CPOE+2.80
- 39.4%Third-down rate37.5%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 1.82Points / drive1.84
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. MIN are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 13/25 | 122 | 2 | 2 |
| Derek Carr | 13/18 | 110 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| A.T. Perry | 2 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 5 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 23/34 | 268 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Chandler | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 11 | 15 | 134 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 4 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.99