2023 · Week 10

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

19·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Joshua Dobbs

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

41

Model margin

-1.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapVikings
  • -0.015EPA / play-0.025
  • 42.2%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback+0.039
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.158
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.94CPOE+2.80
  • 39.4%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.84
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 11–7 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. MIN are 10-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5MIN @ NO23–13MIN
2022 · W4MIN @ NO28–25MIN
2020 · W16MIN @ NO33–52NO
2019 · playoffsMIN @ NO26–20MIN
2018 · W8NO @ MIN30–20NO
2017 · playoffsNO @ MIN24–29MIN
2017 · W1NO @ MIN19–29MIN
2014 · W3MIN @ NO9–20NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–MIN
MINQ1 15:00863Field goal0–3
NOQ1 10:47728Punt0–3
MINQ1 7:4236Punt0–3
NOQ1 6:171056Field goal3–3
MINQ1 1:191270Touchdown3–10
NOQ2 10:1439Punt3–10
MINQ2 8:111077Touchdown3–17
NOQ2 3:3034Punt3–17
MINQ2 1:47781Touchdown3–24
NOQ2 0:16213End of half3–24
NOQ3 15:0039Punt3–24
MINQ3 12:56734Field goal3–27
NOQ3 10:091075Touchdown11–27
MINQ3 5:2639Punt11–27
NOQ3 2:5930Punt11–27
MINQ3 2:37617Missed field goal11–27
NOQ4 14:551051Touchdown19–27
MINQ4 11:40826Punt19–27
NOQ4 8:2833Punt19–27
MINQ4 6:153-2Punt19–27
NOQ4 4:54732Turnover19–27
MINQ4 3:063-2Punt19–27
NOQ4 2:0730Turnover19–27
MINQ4 1:4939Punt19–27
NOQ4 0:0610End of half19–27

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston13/2512222
Derek Carr13/1811000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara9424.70
Derek Carr11010.00
Jamaal Williams471.80
Taysom Hill166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave69941
A.T. Perry24381
Alvin Kamara77330
Rashid Shaheed59240
Taysom Hill24170
Lynn Bowden11120
Michael Thomas1290
Jamaal Williams1130
Juwan Johnson1320

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs23/3426810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Chandler15453.01
Joshua Dobbs8445.51
Alexander Mattison8273.40
Kene Nwangwu294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson11151341
Jordan Addison47690
Brandon Powell45350
Jalen Nailor11160
Johnny Mundt2280
Alexander Mattison1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.99