Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
49
Model margin
+4.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Vikings
- OutAlexander MattisonRBConcussion· DNP
- OutEric KendricksLBCalf· DNP
- OutJalyn HolmesDEGroin· DNP
- OutKyle RudolphTEFoot· DNP
- OutTroy DyeLBConcussion· DNP
- DoubtfulTodd DavisLBRibs· DNP
- QuestionableArmon WattsDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableC.J. HamRBQuadricep· Limited
Saints
- OutMarcus WilliamsSAnkle· DNP
- OutNick EastonGConcussion· DNP
- OutTre'Quan SmithWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAndrus PeatGAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMalcom BrownDTCalf· Limited
- QuestionableTrey HendricksonDENeck· DNP
Win probability
- Saints
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.096
- 49.1%Success rate47.7%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.025EPA / rush+0.039
- 11.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- +4.45CPOE+2.58
- 41.2%Third-down rate46.0%
- 74.1%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.30Points / drive2.72
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 11–7 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. NO are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 12:11 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 8:46 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q1 5:10 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NO | Q1 3:48 | 9 | 84 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| MIN | Q2 14:12 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| NO | Q2 10:14 | 9 | 60 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| MIN | Q2 5:04 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NO | Q2 3:15 | 7 | 46 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q2 0:38 | 3 | 21 | End of half | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 14–24 |
| NO | Q3 12:19 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q3 10:53 | 3 | 18 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| NO | Q3 9:41 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 20–31 |
| MIN | Q3 4:38 | 12 | 53 | Touchdown | 27–31 |
| NO | Q3 0:22 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 27–38 |
| MIN | Q4 12:01 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 27–38 |
| NO | Q4 10:22 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 27–45 |
| MIN | Q4 4:00 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 33–45 |
| NO | Q4 2:10 | 3 | 48 | Touchdown | 33–52 |
| MIN | Q4 1:50 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 33–52 |
| NO | Q4 1:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 33–52 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 27/41 | 291 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 15 | 73 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 9 | 97 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 6 | 9 | 53 | 2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 19/26 | 311 | 0 | 2 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 22 | 155 | 7.0 | 6 |
| Latavius Murray | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 83 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 4 | 82 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.36