2017 · Week 1

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

19·29

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapVikings
  • +0.092EPA / play+0.026
  • 45.3%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback+0.155
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.142
  • 12.4%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +4.74CPOE+3.66
  • 38.5%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.37Points / drive2.02
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 11–7 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. MIN are 10-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5MIN @ NO23–13MIN
2023 · W10NO @ MIN19–27MIN
2022 · W4MIN @ NO28–25MIN
2020 · W16MIN @ NO33–52NO
2019 · playoffsMIN @ NO26–20MIN
2018 · W8NO @ MIN30–20NO
2017 · playoffsNO @ MIN24–29MIN
2014 · W3MIN @ NO9–20NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–MIN
NOQ1 15:001356Field goal3–0
MINQ1 8:211448Field goal3–3
NOQ1 1:0136Punt3–3
MINQ2 14:4549Punt3–3
NOQ2 12:151359Field goal6–3
MINQ2 5:26374Touchdown6–10
NOQ2 4:084-3Punt6–10
MINQ2 1:431098Touchdown6–16
NOQ2 0:0300End of half6–16
MINQ3 15:00754Field goal6–19
NOQ3 11:073-5Punt6–19
MINQ3 9:28622Punt6–19
NOQ3 5:29783Field goal9–19
MINQ3 2:43984Touchdown9–26
NOQ4 12:521173Field goal12–26
MINQ4 7:49748Field goal12–29
NOQ4 4:00875Touchdown19–29
MINQ4 1:56336End of half19–29

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees27/3729110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson6183.00
Alvin Kamara7182.60
Mark Ingram6172.80
Ted Ginn155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Ingram55540
Coby Fleener56541
Ted Ginn45530
Tommylee Lewis23520
Michael Thomas58450
Alvin Kamara46200
Brandon Coleman23130
Adrian Peterson0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford27/3234630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook221275.80
Latavius Murray263.00
Jerick McKinnon351.70
Sam Bradford2-3-1.50
Stefon Diggs1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen9101570
Stefon Diggs78932
Jerick McKinnon33320
Kyle Rudolph33261
Jarius Wright12210
Dalvin Cook35100
Laquon Treadwell1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.42
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.91