Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.092EPA / play+0.026
- 45.3%Success rate42.5%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.155
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.142
- 12.4%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.74CPOE+3.66
- 38.5%Third-down rate44.3%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.37Points / drive2.02
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. MIN are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/37 | 291 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 5 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 27/32 | 346 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 22 | 127 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 9 | 10 | 157 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 8 | 93 | 2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.42
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.91