2005 · Week 4

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Jake Plummer

20·7

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -4

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapJaguars
  • +0.088EPA / play+0.026
  • 44.7%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.109EPA / dropback+0.113
  • +0.067EPA / rush-0.079
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.68
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.066

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2JAX @ DEN13–20DEN
2025 · W16JAX @ DEN34–20JAX
2022 · W8DEN @ JAX21–17DEN
2021 · W2DEN @ JAX23–13DEN
2019 · W4JAX @ DEN26–24JAX
2016 · W13DEN @ JAX20–10DEN
2013 · W6JAX @ DEN19–35DEN
2010 · W1DEN @ JAX17–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:39522Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:2238Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:27724Missed field goal0–0
JAXQ1 5:161-2Turnover0–0
DENQ1 5:0831Missed field goal0–0
JAXQ1 3:26314Punt0–0
DENQ1 1:031780Touchdown7–0
JAXQ2 6:48512Punt7–0
DENQ2 4:38959Touchdown14–0
JAXQ2 0:43416Punt14–0
DENQ2 0:0500End of half14–0
DENQ3 15:00716Punt14–0
JAXQ3 11:05566Touchdown14–7
DENQ3 8:52622Punt14–7
JAXQ3 5:32952Punt14–7
DENQ3 0:2235Punt14–7
JAXQ4 14:446-1Turnover14–7
DENQ4 12:17721Field goal17–7
JAXQ4 8:48741Turnover17–7
DENQ4 6:04749Field goal20–7
JAXQ4 2:42535Turnover20–7
DENQ4 1:56411End of half20–7

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer19/2613620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson231155.00
Tatum Bell15604.00
Charlie Adams11313.00
Ron Dayne231.50
Jake Plummer3-3-1.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich20/3424012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor8141.80
Byron Leftwich133.00
Matt Jones1-7-7.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.76