Closing spread
DEN -27
Total
53
Model margin
+8.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.205
- 38.3%Success rate50.2%
- -0.143EPA / dropback+0.346
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.029
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- -4.13CPOE+6.21
- 31.0%Third-down rate47.1%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
- 1.03Points / drive2.85
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. DEN are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 27/42 | 303 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 20 | 71 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Blackmon | 14 | 20 | 190 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Stephen Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/42 | 295 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 5 | -7 | -1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 7 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 4 | 7 | 22 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.10