2013 · Week 6

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

19·35

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -27

Total

53

Model margin

+8.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.156EPA / play+0.205
  • 38.3%Success rate50.2%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback+0.346
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.029
  • 6.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -4.13CPOE+6.21
  • 31.0%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
  • 1.03Points / drive2.85
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. DEN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2JAX @ DEN13–20DEN
2025 · W16JAX @ DEN34–20JAX
2022 · W8DEN @ JAX21–17DEN
2021 · W2DEN @ JAX23–13DEN
2019 · W4JAX @ DEN26–24JAX
2016 · W13DEN @ JAX20–10DEN
2010 · W1DEN @ JAX17–24JAX
2008 · W6JAX @ DEN24–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–DEN
JAXQ1 15:0047Turnover on downs0–0
DENQ1 14:11737Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 12:09632Punt0–7
DENQ1 8:521280Touchdown0–14
JAXQ1 2:441153Field goal3–14
DENQ2 13:1831Punt3–14
JAXQ2 12:1738Punt3–14
DENQ2 10:18636Turnover3–14
JAXQ2 8:03733Field goal6–14
DENQ2 5:4337Punt6–14
JAXQ2 4:30942Turnover on downs6–14
DENQ2 1:1433Opp touchdown12–14
DENQ2 0:3621End of half12–14
DENQ3 15:001054Touchdown12–21
JAXQ3 12:16980Touchdown19–21
DENQ3 7:43880Touchdown19–28
JAXQ3 4:023-13Punt19–28
DENQ3 2:08856Turnover19–28
JAXQ4 13:52532Turnover19–28
DENQ4 11:28541Touchdown19–35
JAXQ4 9:091274Turnover on downs19–35
DENQ4 3:54613Punt19–35
JAXQ4 1:49414Turnover19–35
DENQ4 0:4700End of half19–35

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne27/4230302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew20713.51
Denard Robinson122.00
Justin Forsett100.00
Jordan Todman100.00
Chad Henne2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Blackmon14201900
Mike Brown45490
Clay Harbor23290
Justin Forsett33180
Ace Sanders1390
Maurice Jones-Drew2230
Stephen Williams0200
Cecil Shorts0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning28/4229521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno15422.83
Ronnie Hillman4205.00
Montee Ball3155.00
Andre Caldwell177.00
Peyton Manning5-7-1.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas35780
Wes Welker68631
Knowshon Moreno710620
Eric Decker57500
Julius Thomas47221
Ronnie Hillman22160
Joel Dreessen1140
Montee Ball0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +273.4%2.7%2.4%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.10