Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play+0.036
- 44.5%Success rate43.7%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.56CPOE-1.38
- 40.9%Third-down rate42.4%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 2.30Points / drive2.10
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. DEN are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/36 | 279 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 1 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 6 | 10 | 145 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 28/47 | 352 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 12 | 86 | 1 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Pat Bryant | 5 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.09