2025 · Week 16

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

34·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.039EPA / play+0.036
  • 44.5%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.097
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.069
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.56CPOE-1.38
  • 40.9%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.10
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. DEN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2JAX @ DEN13–20DEN
2022 · W8DEN @ JAX21–17DEN
2021 · W2DEN @ JAX23–13DEN
2019 · W4JAX @ DEN26–24JAX
2016 · W13DEN @ JAX20–10DEN
2013 · W6JAX @ DEN19–35DEN
2010 · W1DEN @ JAX17–24JAX
2008 · W6JAX @ DEN24–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–DEN
JAXQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:25312Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:5030Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:441061Missed field goal0–0
JAXQ1 5:111051Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 0:07570Touchdown7–7
JAXQ2 12:463-16Punt7–7
DENQ2 11:16432Field goal7–10
JAXQ2 9:10859Touchdown14–10
DENQ2 4:33630Punt14–10
JAXQ2 1:48858Field goal17–10
DENQ3 15:00553Touchdown17–17
JAXQ3 13:011149Touchdown24–17
DENQ3 7:44412Punt24–17
JAXQ3 6:03480Touchdown31–17
DENQ3 3:56518Turnover31–17
JAXQ3 2:01627Field goal34–17
DENQ4 13:36665Field goal34–20
JAXQ4 10:4430Punt34–20
DENQ4 9:28540Turnover34–20
JAXQ4 8:08616Punt34–20
DENQ4 4:14835Turnover on downs34–20
JAXQ4 2:12517Punt34–20
DENQ4 1:38517End of half34–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence23/3627930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne16503.10
Trevor Lawrence6203.31
LeQuint Allen Jr.4102.50
Jakobi Meyers111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parker Washington6101451
Jakobi Meyers48450
Brenton Strange57391
Brian Thomas Jr.23180
Travis Etienne45161
Tim Patrick11110
Quintin Morris1150

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix28/4735211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
RJ Harvey7507.11
Jaleel McLaughlin5377.40
Bo Nix4112.80
Marvin Mims Jr.133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton612861
RJ Harvey45710
Troy Franklin45660
Pat Bryant58420
Evan Engram24360
Marvin Mims Jr.33260
Adam Trautman23140
Lil'Jordan Humphrey1290
Tyler Badie1320
Nate Adkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.09