2026 · Week 2

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

13·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.117EPA / play-0.040
  • 46.8%Success rate37.9%
  • +0.227EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.9%Explosive rate6.4%
  • +3.79CPOE-2.61
  • 49.4%Third-down rate31.4%
  • 71.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.62Points / drive1.75
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. DEN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16JAX @ DEN34–20JAX
2022 · W8DEN @ JAX21–17DEN
2021 · W2DEN @ JAX23–13DEN
2019 · W4JAX @ DEN26–24JAX
2016 · W13DEN @ JAX20–10DEN
2013 · W6JAX @ DEN19–35DEN
2010 · W1DEN @ JAX17–24JAX
2008 · W6JAX @ DEN24–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–DEN
DENQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:02717Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:10524Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:1064Punt0–0
DENQ1 4:10520Punt0–0
JAXQ1 2:05977Touchdown7–0
DENQ2 12:13863Field goal7–3
JAXQ2 7:013-4Punt7–3
DENQ2 5:18876Turnover7–3
JAXQ2 2:08759Field goal10–3
JAXQ3 15:001061Field goal13–3
DENQ3 9:02750Field goal13–6
JAXQ3 4:58613Turnover13–6
DENQ3 1:331064Touchdown13–13
JAXQ4 11:47632Missed field goal13–13
DENQ4 9:42631Touchdown13–20
JAXQ4 7:2169Punt13–20
DENQ4 4:41762End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence17/2918901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bhayshul Tuten13655.01
Chris Rodriguez Jr.6132.20
Ameer Abdullah3113.70
Trevor Lawrence263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parker Washington712980
Brian Thomas Jr.38400
Jakobi Meyers11280
Brenton Strange22170
Quintin Morris1170
Ameer Abdullah1120
LeQuint Allen Jr.0100
Bhayshul Tuten22-30

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix22/3128811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonah Coleman10393.91
J.K. Dobbins10363.60
Pat Bryant11616.00
Nate Adkins166.00
Bo Nix561.20
Tyler Badie111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle8101380
Nate Adkins33321
Tyler Badie23280
Troy Franklin12270
Courtland Sutton34250
Jonah Coleman33190
Evan Engram11170
Lil'Jordan Humphrey0100
Pat Bryant0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.86