Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-19.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.310EPA / play-0.378
- 59.3%Success rate36.0%
- +0.731EPA / dropback-0.442
- -0.053EPA / rush-0.228
- 16.7%Explosive rate2.0%
- +22.32CPOE-7.78
- 55.6%Third-down rate16.7%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 3.76Points / drive0.83
- 0.0%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. DEN are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
8.2%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-21.97
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-19.83