2021 · Week 2

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

23·13

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -6

Total

45

Model margin

+0.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapJaguars
  • +0.021EPA / play-0.079
  • 44.7%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.113
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.34CPOE-4.53
  • 38.3%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.33
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2JAX @ DEN13–20DEN
2025 · W16JAX @ DEN34–20JAX
2022 · W8DEN @ JAX21–17DEN
2019 · W4JAX @ DEN26–24JAX
2016 · W13DEN @ JAX20–10DEN
2013 · W6JAX @ DEN19–35DEN
2010 · W1DEN @ JAX17–24JAX
2008 · W6JAX @ DEN24–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001283Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 9:211356Field goal3–7
JAXQ1 0:261-2Punt3–7
JAXQ2 15:0020Punt3–7
DENQ2 14:43518Punt3–7
JAXQ2 11:3562Missed field goal3–7
DENQ2 8:3431Punt3–7
JAXQ2 7:2537Punt3–7
DENQ2 5:56880Touchdown10–7
JAXQ2 1:541240Missed field goal10–7
DENQ2 0:19439End of half10–7
DENQ3 15:00475Touchdown17–7
JAXQ3 12:3530Punt17–7
DENQ3 10:30521Punt17–7
JAXQ3 6:44418Turnover17–7
DENQ3 4:23624Field goal20–7
JAXQ3 1:0446Punt20–7
DENQ3 0:0139Punt20–7
JAXQ4 13:27835Turnover20–7
DENQ4 10:31942Field goal23–13
JAXQ4 5:4200Touchdown23–13
DENQ4 5:26735End of half23–13

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater26/3432820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams13644.90
Melvin Gordon13312.40
Teddy Bridgewater410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton9121590
Melvin Gordon22380
Tim Patrick34371
Noah Fant46331
Albert Okwuegbunam44240
Kendall Hinton11150
Javonte Williams11100
Eric Saubert1170
KJ Hamler1350

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence14/3311812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson11474.30
Trevor Lawrence22110.50
Carlos Hyde273.50
Laviska Shenault Jr.100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones611551
James O'Shaughnessy11240
DJ Chark14190
James Robinson33170
Luke Farrell1260
Carlos Hyde0200
Chris Manhertz0100
Laquon Treadwell0100
Tyron Johnson0100
Laviska Shenault Jr.27-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.24