Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
45
Model margin
+0.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.079
- 44.7%Success rate44.0%
- +0.100EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.113
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.34CPOE-4.53
- 38.3%Third-down rate35.6%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.89Points / drive1.33
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. JAX are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 26/34 | 328 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 9 | 12 | 159 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 14/33 | 118 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 11 | 55 | 1 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 7 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.24