Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play-0.054
- 39.3%Success rate40.3%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.03CPOE-2.47
- 35.4%Third-down rate32.0%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.61Points / drive1.47
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. DEN are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 19/33 | 213 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 29 | 225 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/38 | 303 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 9 | 104 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 9 | 62 | 2 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 3 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.83