2019 · Week 4

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

26·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Joe Flacco

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

Total

37

Model margin

+2.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.053EPA / play-0.054
  • 39.3%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.110
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -3.03CPOE-2.47
  • 35.4%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.47
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. DEN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2JAX @ DEN13–20DEN
2025 · W16JAX @ DEN34–20JAX
2022 · W8DEN @ JAX21–17DEN
2021 · W2DEN @ JAX23–13DEN
2016 · W13DEN @ JAX20–10DEN
2013 · W6JAX @ DEN19–35DEN
2010 · W1DEN @ JAX17–24JAX
2008 · W6JAX @ DEN24–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–DEN
DENQ1 15:00739Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:0636Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:07253Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 8:17968Field goal3–7
DENQ1 3:1334Punt3–7
JAXQ1 2:133-7Punt3–7
DENQ1 1:11669Touchdown3–14
JAXQ2 13:39412Punt3–14
DENQ2 11:5532Punt3–14
JAXQ2 11:003-2Punt3–14
DENQ2 8:431062Field goal3–17
JAXQ2 4:1637Punt3–17
DENQ2 2:21628Turnover3–17
JAXQ2 0:49731Field goal6–17
DENQ2 0:0800End of half6–17
JAXQ3 15:001880Touchdown13–17
DENQ3 4:3636Punt13–17
JAXQ3 2:574103Touchdown20–17
DENQ3 1:1042Punt20–17
JAXQ3 0:16824Punt20–17
DENQ4 11:29422Punt20–17
JAXQ4 9:541278Field goal23–17
DENQ4 2:54685Touchdown23–24
JAXQ4 1:32855Field goal26–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew19/3321320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette292257.80
Ryquell Armstead8425.30
Gardner Minshew122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dede Westbrook56660
DJ Chark48440
Leonard Fournette23200
Keelan Cole11190
James O'Shaughnessy14181
Chris Conley14170
Geoff Swaim34170
Ryquell Armstead1171
Marqise Lee1150

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3830331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay9535.90
Royce Freeman6162.70
Joe Flacco1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders591040
Courtland Sutton69622
DaeSean Hamilton35570
Royce Freeman46340
Noah Fant24311
Diontae Spencer1180
Phillip Lindsay1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.83