2022 · Week 8

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

21·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

Wembley Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

JAX -1

Total

41

Model margin

+4.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapJaguars
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.045
  • 39.4%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.100
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.65CPOE+1.07
  • 29.1%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.34Points / drive2.07
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2JAX @ DEN13–20DEN
2025 · W16JAX @ DEN34–20JAX
2021 · W2DEN @ JAX23–13DEN
2019 · W4JAX @ DEN26–24JAX
2016 · W13DEN @ JAX20–10DEN
2013 · W6JAX @ DEN19–35DEN
2010 · W1DEN @ JAX17–24JAX
2008 · W6JAX @ DEN24–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–JAX
DENQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:2849Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:0822Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 10:36647Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 7:40422Punt0–7
JAXQ1 5:041644Turnover0–7
DENQ2 12:4239Punt0–7
JAXQ2 10:52554Field goal0–10
DENQ2 8:431175Touchdown7–10
JAXQ2 2:44824Punt7–10
DENQ2 1:01836Turnover on downs7–10
JAXQ3 15:00830Punt7–10
DENQ3 9:29998Touchdown14–10
JAXQ3 5:07614Punt14–10
DENQ3 2:063-6Punt14–10
JAXQ3 0:3033Punt14–10
DENQ4 14:2038Punt14–10
JAXQ4 12:51933Punt14–10
DENQ4 8:1830Punt14–10
JAXQ4 7:06647Touchdown14–17
DENQ4 3:54780Touchdown21–17
JAXQ4 1:4310Turnover21–17
DENQ4 1:36410End of half21–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/3025211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray14463.31
Melvin Gordon9293.21
Russell Wilson4174.30
KJ Hamler199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Dulcich45870
Jerry Jeudy67631
KJ Hamler23520
Melvin Gordon34230
Latavius Murray12130
Courtland Sutton14130
Montrell Washington1110

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence18/3113312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne241566.51
Trevor Lawrence3155.00
JaMycal Hasty4133.30
Zay Jones177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram46551
Christian Kirk37400
Zay Jones33280
Dan Arnold1180
Travis Etienne3360
Marvin Jones0300
Chris Manhertz11-10
JaMycal Hasty34-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.15