Closing spread
JAX -1
Total
41
Model margin
+4.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.045
- 39.4%Success rate46.6%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.65CPOE+1.07
- 29.1%Third-down rate42.0%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.34Points / drive2.07
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. JAX are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/30 | 252 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dulcich | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| KJ Hamler | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/31 | 133 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 24 | 156 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 4 | 6 | 55 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.15