2010 · Week 1

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

17·24

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapJaguars
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.019
  • 39.3%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.205EPA / rush+0.030
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -2.61CPOE+1.85
  • 31.6%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 61.7%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.86
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2JAX @ DEN13–20DEN
2025 · W16JAX @ DEN34–20JAX
2022 · W8DEN @ JAX21–17DEN
2021 · W2DEN @ JAX23–13DEN
2019 · W4JAX @ DEN26–24JAX
2016 · W13DEN @ JAX20–10DEN
2013 · W6JAX @ DEN19–35DEN
2008 · W6JAX @ DEN24–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–JAX
DENQ1 15:00853Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:24739Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:23520Punt0–0
JAXQ1 5:13722Punt0–0
DENQ1 1:441376Turnover0–0
JAXQ2 8:16519Punt0–0
DENQ2 4:503-6Punt0–0
JAXQ2 3:59660Touchdown0–7
DENQ2 0:50474Touchdown7–7
JAXQ2 0:1600End of half7–7
JAXQ3 15:00848Touchdown7–14
DENQ3 10:4368Punt7–14
JAXQ3 7:3849Turnover on downs7–14
DENQ3 6:06533Touchdown14–14
JAXQ3 4:07631Field goal14–17
DENQ3 0:45849Field goal17–17
JAXQ4 11:20753Touchdown17–24
DENQ4 7:59743Turnover on downs17–24
JAXQ4 4:41521Punt17–24
DENQ4 1:50413Turnover17–24
JAXQ4 0:4600End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton21/3329511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno15604.01
Correll Buckhalter6152.50
Kyle Orton2126.00
Tim Tebow221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd581170
Eddie Royal810980
Daniel Graham23360
Jabar Gaffney37341
Knowshon Moreno1240
Dan Gronkowski1120
Correll Buckhalter0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard16/2117030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew23984.30
Rashad Jennings4266.50
David Garrard7101.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas67890
Marcedes Lewis22312
Kassim Osgood11241
Maurice Jones-Drew33150
Zach Miller2280
Rashad Jennings1240
Mike Sims-Walker0200
John Matthews0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.11