Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.019
- 39.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.205EPA / rush+0.030
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.6%
- -2.61CPOE+1.85
- 31.6%Third-down rate39.5%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.70Points / drive1.86
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. JAX are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 21/33 | 295 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 5 | 8 | 117 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 8 | 10 | 98 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Dan Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 16/21 | 170 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 23 | 98 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 6 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 31 | 2 |
| Kassim Osgood | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| John Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.11