2016 · Week 13

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Paxton Lynch

20·10

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

39

Model margin

+1.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapJaguars
  • -0.059EPA / play-0.060
  • 41.0%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.153EPA / rush-0.210
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -0.31CPOE-4.51
  • 34.4%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.52
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2JAX @ DEN13–20DEN
2025 · W16JAX @ DEN34–20JAX
2022 · W8DEN @ JAX21–17DEN
2021 · W2DEN @ JAX23–13DEN
2019 · W4JAX @ DEN26–24JAX
2013 · W6JAX @ DEN19–35DEN
2010 · W1DEN @ JAX17–24JAX
2008 · W6JAX @ DEN24–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–JAX
DENQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
JAXQ1 14:1139Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:39731Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:0339Punt0–0
DENQ1 6:33420Punt0–0
JAXQ1 4:32941Punt0–0
DENQ2 15:0035Punt0–0
JAXQ2 14:09630Field goal0–3
DENQ2 11:01960Touchdown7–3
JAXQ2 6:54538Turnover7–3
DENQ2 4:2937Punt7–3
JAXQ2 3:00931Punt7–3
DENQ2 0:47329Field goal10–3
JAXQ2 0:0100End of half10–3
JAXQ3 15:0033Punt10–3
DENQ3 14:0637Punt10–3
JAXQ3 12:27944Opp touchdown17–3
JAXQ3 7:3431Punt17–3
DENQ3 6:4737Punt17–3
JAXQ3 4:481365Touchdown17–10
DENQ4 14:03512Punt17–10
JAXQ4 11:57835Turnover on downs17–10
DENQ4 8:1437Punt17–10
JAXQ4 6:5368Punt17–10
DENQ4 5:1439Punt17–10
JAXQ4 2:5734Punt17–10
DENQ4 2:0835Punt17–10
JAXQ4 1:412-2Turnover17–10
DENQ4 1:2736Field goal20–10
JAXQ4 0:29217End of half20–10

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Paxton Lynch12/2410400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kapri Bibbs5499.80
Devontae Booker18351.91
Paxton Lynch2115.50
Juwan Thompson252.50
Emmanuel Sanders144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas610610
Emmanuel Sanders39280
Cody Latimer11100
A.J. Derby1130
Devontae Booker1120
Jordan Norwood0100
Virgil Green0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles19/4218102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon14553.90
Denard Robinson17533.10
Blake Bortles22914.51
Marqise Lee2105.00
Shane Wynn252.50
Corey Grant122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Neal Sterling56430
Marqise Lee39340
Bryan Walters36310
Allen Robinson310310
T.J. Yeldon37270
Denard Robinson11110
Ben Koyack1340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.65
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.98