Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+1.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.060
- 41.0%Success rate41.3%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.153EPA / rush-0.210
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- -0.31CPOE-4.51
- 34.4%Third-down rate34.7%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
- 1.51Points / drive1.52
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. JAX are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton Lynch | 12/24 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapri Bibbs | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 18 | 35 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Paxton Lynch | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 19/42 | 181 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 1 |
| Marqise Lee | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Shane Wynn | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neal Sterling | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 3 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.98