2005 · Week 4

Final

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

10·16

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 79°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CIN -9.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBengals
  • -0.099EPA / play+0.102
  • 40.0%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.098EPA / rush+0.023
  • 6.2%Explosive rate9.1%
  • 34.0%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.30Points / drive2.30
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
  • +0.119EPA / play allowed+0.010

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CIN are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU
2011 · playoffsCIN @ HOU10–31HOU

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr17/2617410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Domanick Williams19814.30
David Carr33511.70
Jonathan Wells11010.00

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer25/3427610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rudi Johnson19884.60
Chris Perry461.50
T.J. Houshmandzadeh155.00
Carson Palmer1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.98