Closing spread
CIN -9.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play+0.102
- 40.0%Success rate48.2%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.098EPA / rush+0.023
- 6.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- 34.0%Third-down rate43.8%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.30Points / drive2.30
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.119EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. CIN are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:29 | 15 | 76 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| HOU | Q1 4:35 | 11 | 49 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CIN | Q2 13:31 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q2 9:35 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CIN | Q2 5:07 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q2 1:09 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CIN | Q2 0:08 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q3 13:12 | 10 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q3 7:40 | 12 | 89 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q3 0:28 | 6 | -3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q4 12:38 | 14 | 81 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| HOU | Q4 5:04 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q4 3:14 | 3 | 12 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| HOU | Q4 1:10 | 5 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 10–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 17/26 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 19 | 81 | 4.3 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/34 | 276 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.98