Closing spread
CIN -5.5
Total
38
Model margin
-1.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play-0.088
- 40.4%Success rate39.2%
- -0.004EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- -2.95CPOE-1.89
- 36.6%Third-down rate34.7%
- 63.3%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.47Points / drive1.49
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CIN are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 15/24 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 67 | 13.4 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 13 | 73 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/35 | 224 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.94
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.77