2017 · Week 2

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

13·9

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

Total

38

Model margin

-1.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBengals
  • -0.053EPA / play-0.088
  • 40.4%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.150
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -2.95CPOE-1.89
  • 36.6%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 63.3%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.49
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. CIN are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CIN @ HOU20–6CIN
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU
2011 · playoffsCIN @ HOU10–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CIN
HOUQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:5948Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:0037Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:0744Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:1558Punt0–0
CINQ1 5:13212Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 4:32517Field goal3–0
CINQ1 1:28443Field goal3–3
HOUQ2 13:44613Punt3–3
CINQ2 10:20628Punt3–3
HOUQ2 7:1739Punt3–3
CINQ2 5:1637Punt3–3
HOUQ2 4:30994Touchdown10–3
CINQ2 0:50564Field goal10–6
HOUQ2 0:0200End of half10–6
CINQ3 15:001658Field goal10–9
HOUQ3 6:26818Punt10–9
CINQ3 3:02628Punt10–9
HOUQ3 0:3237Punt10–9
CINQ4 13:40515Punt10–9
HOUQ4 11:1538Punt10–9
CINQ4 9:5332Punt10–9
HOUQ4 8:201572Field goal13–9
CINQ4 1:56518Turnover on downs13–9
HOUQ4 1:0839Punt13–9
CINQ4 0:0218End of half13–9

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson15/2412500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson56713.41
Lamar Miller18613.40
D'Onta Foreman12403.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins713730
Lamar Miller33260
Tyler Ervin35160
Braxton Miller23100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton20/3522400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon9364.00
Jeremy Hill6172.80
John Ross11212.00
Giovani Bernard5102.00
Andy Dalton252.50
Alex Erickson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green58670
Alex Erickson46620
Tyler Eifert34420
Brandon LaFell47300
Giovani Bernard24160
Joe Mixon1150
Jeremy Hill1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.94
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.77