Closing spread
CIN -10
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.076
- 40.4%Success rate45.3%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.2%
- -4.17CPOE+4.53
- 39.6%Third-down rate39.6%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
- 1.50Points / drive2.11
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CIN are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 12/22 | 123 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Yates | 5/11 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Grimes | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 11 | 57 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/38 | 197 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+1.77