2015 · Week 10

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brian Hoyer

10·6

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CIN -10

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBengals
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.076
  • 40.4%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.022EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.172EPA / rush-0.144
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -4.17CPOE+4.53
  • 39.6%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
  • 1.50Points / drive2.11
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. CIN are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CIN @ HOU20–6CIN
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU
2011 · playoffsCIN @ HOU10–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CIN
CINQ1 15:00633Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:48413Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:1646Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:153-6Punt0–0
CINQ1 6:01637Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 1:281174Field goal3–3
CINQ2 12:161557Field goal3–6
HOUQ2 5:2638Punt3–6
CINQ2 3:48829Punt3–6
HOUQ2 0:31515Turnover3–6
HOUQ3 15:00845Punt3–6
CINQ3 10:4720Turnover3–6
HOUQ3 10:09825Punt3–6
CINQ3 5:31511Punt3–6
HOUQ3 2:21964Touchdown10–6
CINQ4 14:2038Punt10–6
HOUQ4 12:5334Punt10–6
CINQ4 11:463-3Punt10–6
HOUQ4 10:4933Punt10–6
CINQ4 9:03520Punt10–6
HOUQ4 6:56413Punt10–6
CINQ4 3:541058Turnover10–6
HOUQ4 0:4000End of half10–6

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer12/2212301
T.J. Yates5/116910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Grimes6335.50
Alfred Blue12221.80
Brian Hoyer11515.00
Chris Polk4143.50
T.J. Yates2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins511571
Ryan Griffin36360
Nate Washington25320
C.J. Fiedorowicz22300
Cecil Shorts37160
Jonathan Grimes11120
Alfred Blue1190

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/3819701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard8364.50
Andy Dalton4317.80
Jeremy Hill7152.10
Marvin Jones1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green57670
Marvin Jones49440
Giovani Bernard58430
Tyler Eifert37260
Ryan Hewitt1170
Mohamed Sanu1250
Jeremy Hill3350
Rex Burkhead0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+1.77