2016 · Week 16

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

10·12

Texans

Houston

QB Tom Savage

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTexans
  • +0.052EPA / play-0.079
  • 45.3%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.154
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +2.98CPOE-3.29
  • 38.9%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.45
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. HOU are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CIN @ HOU20–6CIN
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU
2011 · playoffsCIN @ HOU10–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–HOU
CINQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:15613Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:01520Punt0–0
HOUQ1 7:163-7Punt0–0
CINQ1 5:19613Punt0–0
HOUQ1 2:3337Punt0–0
CINQ1 1:0536Punt0–0
HOUQ2 14:1336Punt0–0
CINQ2 12:4039Punt0–0
HOUQ2 11:3935Punt0–0
CINQ2 10:0448Punt0–0
HOUQ2 7:29510Punt0–0
CINQ2 4:581367Field goal3–0
HOUQ3 15:001363Field goal3–3
CINQ3 9:0569Punt3–3
HOUQ3 5:051549Field goal3–6
CINQ4 13:31215Turnover3–6
HOUQ4 12:4130Punt3–6
CINQ4 11:40391Touchdown10–6
HOUQ4 10:45475Touchdown10–12
CINQ4 8:413-3Punt10–12
HOUQ4 7:00629Punt10–12
CINQ4 3:461260Missed field goal10–12

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton28/4126811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead12423.50
Jeremy Hill781.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell6101301
Cody Core814390
C.J. Uzomah56280
Rex Burkhead44250
Tyler Boyd24250
Ryan Hewitt1180
James Wright1180
Alex Erickson1150

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Savage18/2917600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue21733.51
Tom Savage11111.00
Akeem Hunt166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins36430
C.J. Fiedorowicz47420
Will Fuller36390
Akeem Hunt22280
Alfred Blue44170
Keith Mumphery2270
Ryan Griffin0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.25
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.75