Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.079
- 45.3%Success rate41.9%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.154
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.9%
- +2.98CPOE-3.29
- 38.9%Third-down rate36.9%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.86Points / drive1.45
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 28/41 | 268 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 6 | 10 | 130 | 1 |
| Cody Core | 8 | 14 | 39 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| James Wright | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Savage | 18/29 | 176 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 21 | 73 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tom Savage | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.75