Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-6.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play+0.071
- 47.6%Success rate48.1%
- -0.030EPA / dropback+0.098
- +0.050EPA / rush+0.030
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- +6.35CPOE+3.16
- 57.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.11Points / drive2.80
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
6.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.4%
Expected total
48.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.22
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.00