2026 · Week 2

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

20·6

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

Reliant Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTexans
  • +0.108EPA / play+0.031
  • 48.7%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.206EPA / dropback+0.138
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.167
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +7.31CPOE+2.27
  • 50.7%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 64.8%Red-zone TD rate60.4%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.19
  • 1.4%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. HOU are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU
2011 · playoffsCIN @ HOU10–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–HOU
CINQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:5532Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:1258Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:0835Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:36630Punt0–0
HOUQ1 4:401386Turnover on downs0–0
CINQ2 13:20521Punt0–0
HOUQ2 10:08748Turnover on downs0–0
CINQ2 6:53781Touchdown7–0
HOUQ2 3:29949Field goal7–3
CINQ2 1:17510Punt7–3
HOUQ2 0:21418End of half7–3
HOUQ3 15:0030Punt7–3
CINQ3 14:3038Field goal10–3
HOUQ3 12:28738Missed field goal10–3
CINQ3 7:29857Touchdown17–3
HOUQ3 3:03642Field goal17–6
CINQ3 0:35633Field goal20–6
HOUQ4 12:16430Punt20–6
CINQ4 10:4235Punt20–6
HOUQ4 9:5434Punt20–6
CINQ4 8:2457Punt20–6
HOUQ4 5:04615Turnover on downs20–6
CINQ4 3:1532Punt20–6
HOUQ4 2:101137Turnover on downs20–6
CINQ4 0:1200End of half20–6

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow20/3120720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown20804.00
Samaje Perine263.00
Joe Burrow1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins510950
Ja'Marr Chase79752
Samaje Perine11160
Andrei Iosivas1170
Colbie Young1170
Erick All2350
Chase Brown3520
Dohnte Meyers0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud30/5535300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Stroud3299.70
Jaylin Noel11313.00
David Montgomery6101.70
Woody Marks881.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz12141400
Kayshon Boutte35370
Xavier Hutchinson39370
Foster Moreau22340
Jared Wayne27330
Jaylin Noel15310
Woody Marks56270
David Montgomery22140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.81