Closing spread
HOU -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play+0.069
- 41.6%Success rate43.9%
- +0.019EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.046
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.17CPOE-0.02
- 34.3%Third-down rate38.1%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
- 1.71Points / drive1.89
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 14/30 | 127 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 29/38 | 262 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 32 | 140 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 9 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 8 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96