2012 · WC

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

13·19

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTexans
  • -0.002EPA / play+0.069
  • 41.6%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.019EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.046
  • 6.6%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.17CPOE-0.02
  • 34.3%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.89
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. HOU are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CIN @ HOU20–6CIN
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2011 · playoffsCIN @ HOU10–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:1032Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:08865Field goal0–3
CINQ1 7:49417Punt0–3
HOUQ1 5:121249Field goal0–6
CINQ2 13:07410Punt0–6
HOUQ2 10:5237Opp touchdown7–6
HOUQ2 9:301276Field goal7–9
CINQ2 2:19625Punt7–9
HOUQ2 1:10848Turnover on downs7–9
CINQ2 0:0400End of half7–9
CINQ3 15:003-1Punt7–9
HOUQ3 13:51746Touchdown7–16
CINQ3 10:31664Field goal10–16
HOUQ3 7:48630Punt10–16
CINQ3 4:3358Turnover10–16
HOUQ3 3:06730Field goal10–19
CINQ4 14:17932Field goal13–19
HOUQ4 9:03539Punt13–19
CINQ4 6:15942Turnover on downs13–19
HOUQ4 2:44527End of half13–19

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton14/3012701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis11635.70
Andy Dalton4153.80
Brian Leonard122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green511800
Marvin Jones35340
Andrew Hawkins24150
Jermaine Gresham2770
BenJarvus Green-Ellis22-90

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub29/3826201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster321404.41
Keshawn Martin11616.00
Matt Schaub410.30
Ben Tate210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels911910
Andre Johnson46620
Arian Foster88340
Garrett Graham33290
Kevin Walter45260
James Casey13200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.96