2020 · Week 16

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Brandon Allen

37·31

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+6.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTexans
  • -0.041EPA / play+0.093
  • 44.2%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.122EPA / rush-0.193
  • 6.5%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +0.03CPOE+6.51
  • 37.1%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.25
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. HOU are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CIN @ HOU20–6CIN
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU
2011 · playoffsCIN @ HOU10–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:28871Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 8:3239Punt7–0
CINQ1 7:07740Turnover on downs7–0
HOUQ1 3:33454Field goal7–3
CINQ1 1:221342Missed field goal7–3
HOUQ2 10:06629Punt7–3
CINQ2 7:39874Field goal10–3
HOUQ2 3:30575Touchdown10–10
CINQ2 1:5433Punt10–10
HOUQ2 0:57417Punt10–10
CINQ2 0:1000End of half10–10
CINQ3 15:00475Touchdown17–10
HOUQ3 12:59775Touchdown17–17
CINQ3 9:05685Touchdown24–17
HOUQ3 5:46880Touchdown24–24
CINQ3 0:551161Field goal27–24
HOUQ4 10:35888Touchdown27–31
CINQ4 6:151075Touchdown34–31
HOUQ4 1:57213Turnover34–31
CINQ4 1:28515Field goal37–31
HOUQ4 0:18242End of half37–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Allen29/3737120
Alex Erickson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine13957.32
Giovani Bernard16654.10
Trayveon Williams263.00
Brandon Allen231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins69991
Alex Erickson66880
Giovani Bernard78660
A.J. Green47640
Samaje Perine44410
Drew Sample1181
Trenton Irwin1250
Mike Thomas0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson24/3332430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson1212810.71
Deshaun Watson5387.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks7101411
Keke Coutee55540
Jordan Akins44390
Pharaoh Brown11290
Darren Fells12221
David Johnson33111
Chad Hansen1380
Kahale Warring1330
Steven Mitchell1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.1%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.24
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+6.06