Closing spread
HOU -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+6.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.093
- 44.2%Success rate47.8%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.122EPA / rush-0.193
- 6.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- +0.03CPOE+6.51
- 37.1%Third-down rate43.5%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.87Points / drive2.25
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 29/37 | 371 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 13 | 95 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Giovani Bernard | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 9 | 99 | 1 |
| Alex Erickson | 6 | 6 | 88 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 24/33 | 324 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 12 | 128 | 10.7 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 10 | 141 | 1 |
| Keke Coutee | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Chad Hansen | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Kahale Warring | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Steven Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.24
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.06