2014 · Week 12

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

22·13

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Mallett

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTexans
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.031
  • 42.0%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.020EPA / rush-0.120
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +0.60CPOE-2.14
  • 39.7%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.63
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. HOU are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CIN @ HOU20–6CIN
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU
2011 · playoffsCIN @ HOU10–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–HOU
CINQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:451134Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:381489Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 1:1936Punt7–0
CINQ2 15:001179Turnover on downs9–0
HOUQ2 9:021-1Safety9–0
CINQ2 8:5739Punt9–0
HOUQ2 6:491567Field goal9–3
CINQ2 1:45321End of half9–3
HOUQ3 15:0010Turnover9–3
CINQ3 14:46622Touchdown16–3
HOUQ3 11:4839Punt16–3
CINQ3 10:16619Opp touchdown16–10
CINQ3 7:1933Punt16–10
HOUQ3 6:141160Field goal16–13
CINQ3 1:481766Field goal19–13
HOUQ4 8:4836Punt19–13
CINQ4 7:5931Punt19–13
HOUQ4 6:153-3Punt19–13
CINQ4 4:56847Field goal22–13
HOUQ4 1:551470Turnover on downs22–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton24/3523311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill18874.81
Giovani Bernard17452.60
Andy Dalton760.90
Mohamed Sanu111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green12161210
Mohamed Sanu57481
Jermaine Gresham46330
Giovani Bernard23220
Jeremy Hill1190
James Wright0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Mallett21/4518901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue16462.90
Jonathan Grimes2168.00
Ryan Mallett122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Graham47410
DeAndre Hopkins59390
Andre Johnson312360
Jonathan Grimes34320
Damaris Johnson35210
Alfred Blue34200
Keshawn Martin0100
Ryan Griffin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.36
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.59