Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.031
- 42.0%Success rate40.7%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.020EPA / rush-0.120
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.60CPOE-2.14
- 39.7%Third-down rate38.0%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
- 1.86Points / drive1.63
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 24/35 | 233 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 12 | 16 | 121 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| James Wright | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mallett | 21/45 | 189 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Graham | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 12 | 36 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59