Closing spread
CIN -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.001
- 41.4%Success rate44.4%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.103
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.53CPOE+2.09
- 37.7%Third-down rate38.3%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.91
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CIN are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 23/39 | 356 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 30 | 150 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brown | 7 | 8 | 172 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 6 | 14 | 56 | 1 |
| John Metchie III | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 27/40 | 347 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 6 | 124 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 8 | 12 | 117 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 2 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Tanner Hudson | 6 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.05