2023 · Week 10

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

30·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBengals
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.001
  • 41.4%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.103
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.53CPOE+2.09
  • 37.7%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.91
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. CIN are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CIN @ HOU20–6CIN
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU
2011 · playoffsCIN @ HOU10–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CIN
CINQ1 15:001160Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:43520Punt0–7
CINQ1 7:56726Punt0–7
HOUQ1 3:42978Turnover0–7
CINQ2 15:0037Punt0–7
HOUQ2 13:36760Touchdown7–7
CINQ2 10:3338Punt7–7
HOUQ2 8:59754Turnover7–7
CINQ2 5:3139Punt7–7
HOUQ2 2:40861Field goal10–7
CINQ2 0:1000End of half10–7
HOUQ3 15:001072Field goal13–7
CINQ3 9:273-11Punt13–7
HOUQ3 7:59317Touchdown20–7
CINQ3 7:08753Field goal20–10
HOUQ3 3:0037Punt20–10
CINQ3 1:33465Touchdown20–17
HOUQ3 0:10675Touchdown27–17
CINQ4 12:47741Turnover27–17
HOUQ4 9:35630Punt27–17
CINQ4 5:50764Turnover27–17
HOUQ4 3:5338Turnover27–17
CINQ4 3:3331Touchdown27–24
HOUQ4 3:1837Punt27–24
CINQ4 2:10558Field goal27–27
HOUQ4 1:33555Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud23/3935611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary301505.01
Xavier Hutchinson11717.00
Tank Dell11313.00
C.J. Stroud284.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Brown781720
Dalton Schultz46710
Tank Dell614561
John Metchie III22250
Robert Woods13150
Devin Singletary12110
Mike Boone2360
Xavier Hutchinson0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow27/4034722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon11464.21
Joe Burrow5204.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase561241
Tyler Boyd8121170
Trenton Irwin24541
Tanner Hudson67330
Drew Sample23120
Irv Smith1160
Trayveon Williams1120
Mitchell Wilcox0100
Andrei Iosivas0100
Joe Mixon23-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.05