Closing spread
IND -7
Total
45
Model margin
-2.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.188EPA / play-0.113
- 51.2%Success rate40.6%
- +0.339EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.171
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.1%
- 50.1%Third-down rate34.5%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.60Points / drive1.17
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–16 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 11:31 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| IND | Q1 4:58 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q1 3:35 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 7–3 |
| IND | Q2 14:13 | 13 | 60 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| TEN | Q2 7:17 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–3 |
| IND | Q2 5:44 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| TEN | Q2 1:17 | 5 | 32 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| IND | Q2 0:29 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 17–3 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 17–3 |
| IND | Q3 12:25 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| TEN | Q3 7:55 | 11 | 55 | Missed field goal | 24–3 |
| IND | Q3 0:22 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 31–3 |
| TEN | Q4 13:09 | 16 | 91 | Touchdown | 31–10 |
| IND | Q4 4:31 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 31–10 |
| TEN | Q4 2:10 | 4 | 37 | End of half | 31–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/27 | 264 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ran Carthon | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 28/37 | 220 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.3%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.16