Closing spread
IND -7
Total
45
Model margin
-2.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.188EPA / play-0.113
- 51.2%Success rate40.6%
- +0.339EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.171
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.1%
- 50.1%Third-down rate34.5%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.60Points / drive1.17
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/27 | 264 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ran Carthon | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 28/37 | 220 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.3%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.16