Closing spread
ATL -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.020
- 40.6%Success rate40.6%
- -0.009EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.024
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 33.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.46Points / drive1.65
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:20 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 7:44 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 5:45 | 14 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q2 12:55 | 8 | 39 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q2 8:05 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q2 6:23 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q2 5:02 | 3 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| MIN | Q2 3:40 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–21 |
| ATL | Q2 1:19 | 7 | 61 | Field goal | 0–24 |
| MIN | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–24 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–24 |
| MIN | Q3 13:17 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 0–24 |
| ATL | Q3 9:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–24 |
| MIN | Q3 8:19 | 6 | 10 | Turnover | 0–24 |
| ATL | Q3 5:32 | 11 | 45 | Field goal | 0–27 |
| MIN | Q3 0:04 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| ATL | Q4 14:18 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–27 |
| MIN | Q4 12:34 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| ATL | Q4 8:13 | 4 | 18 | Field goal | 3–30 |
| MIN | Q4 5:24 | 13 | 96 | Touchdown | 10–30 |
| ATL | Q4 2:33 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 10–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/34 | 250 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 6/8 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 5/14 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 18 | 126 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 4 | 58 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | 56 | 14.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.91