2005 · Week 4

Final

Jets

New York

QB Brooks Bollinger

3·13

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Anthony Wright

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 79°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

31.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapRavens
  • -0.124EPA / play-0.109
  • 40.1%Success rate38.7%
  • -0.093EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.171EPA / rush-0.179
  • 5.7%Explosive rate7.2%
  • 35.3%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 39.0%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
  • 1.30Points / drive1.20
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%
  • +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.088

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYJ @ BAL10–23BAL
2022 · W1BAL @ NYJ24–9BAL
2019 · W15NYJ @ BAL21–42BAL
2016 · W7BAL @ NYJ16–24NYJ
2013 · W12NYJ @ BAL3–19BAL
2011 · W4NYJ @ BAL17–34BAL
2010 · W1BAL @ NYJ10–9BAL
2007 · W2NYJ @ BAL13–20BAL

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brooks Bollinger14/2814900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin13302.30
Derrick Blaylock2-2-1.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Wright15/2114401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis29812.81
Chester Taylor11322.90
Anthony Wright520.40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.25
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.85