Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
31.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play-0.109
- 40.1%Success rate38.7%
- -0.093EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.179
- 5.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- 35.3%Third-down rate39.5%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.30Points / drive1.20
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 13:02 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 11:21 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:31 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 4:05 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 2:05 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q2 13:56 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:27 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q2 9:20 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 3:47 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q2 1:28 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q3 13:20 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:02 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q3 11:17 | 14 | 67 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:12 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 3–13 |
| BAL | Q4 14:17 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:53 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 3–13 |
| BAL | Q4 11:17 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:06 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 3–13 |
| BAL | Q4 8:02 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:55 | 9 | 62 | Turnover on downs | 3–13 |
| BAL | Q4 2:38 | 2 | 15 | End of half | 3–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 14/28 | 149 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 15/21 | 144 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 29 | 81 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.25
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.85