Closing spread
BAL -14
Total
44.5
Model margin
+7.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.037
- 40.5%Success rate44.6%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.117EPA / rush+0.038
- 6.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- -4.21CPOE+2.86
- 35.0%Third-down rate41.4%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.54Points / drive2.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 17/28 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 4 | 4 | 75 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 6 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Mason Taylor | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13/23 | 153 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Devontez Walker | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.60
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+7.38