2025 · Week 12

Final

Jets

New York

QB Tyrod Taylor

10·23

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -14

Total

44.5

Model margin

+7.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapRavens
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.037
  • 40.5%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.117EPA / rush+0.038
  • 6.5%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -4.21CPOE+2.86
  • 35.0%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.30
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1BAL @ NYJ24–9BAL
2019 · W15NYJ @ BAL21–42BAL
2016 · W7BAL @ NYJ16–24NYJ
2013 · W12NYJ @ BAL3–19BAL
2011 · W4NYJ @ BAL17–34BAL
2010 · W1BAL @ NYJ10–9BAL
2007 · W2NYJ @ BAL13–20BAL
2005 · W4NYJ @ BAL3–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BAL
NYJQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
BALQ1 14:02718Punt0–0
NYJQ1 9:38837Punt0–0
BALQ1 3:5937Punt0–0
NYJQ1 2:15616Punt0–0
BALQ2 14:1373Punt0–0
NYJQ2 10:331279Touchdown7–0
BALQ2 4:04745Field goal7–3
NYJQ2 1:35414Punt7–3
BALQ2 0:2310End of half7–3
BALQ3 15:001245Touchdown7–10
NYJQ3 8:4948Turnover on downs7–10
BALQ3 6:38825Touchdown7–17
NYJQ3 3:33946Field goal10–17
BALQ4 14:41858Field goal10–20
NYJQ4 9:35574Turnover10–20
BALQ4 6:51535Punt10–20
NYJQ4 3:1166Turnover on downs10–20
BALQ4 1:4137Field goal10–23
NYJQ4 0:412-2Turnover10–23
BALQ4 0:0500End of half10–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor17/2822211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall16442.80
Tyrod Taylor5193.80
Arian Smith188.00
Isaiah Davis471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breece Hall44750
John Metchie III67651
Adonai Mitchell27420
Mason Taylor35210
Allen Lazard1390

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson13/2315300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry21643.02
Lamar Jackson7111.60
Zay Flowers2115.50
Keaton Mitchell2105.00
Mark Andrews221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers56580
Devontez Walker11300
Derrick Henry22240
DeAndre Hopkins23130
Isaiah Likely13100
Mark Andrews1390
Keaton Mitchell1190
Tylan Wallace0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.60
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+7.38