2019 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

21·42

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -17

Total

44

Model margin

+7.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapRavens
  • -0.155EPA / play+0.203
  • 37.3%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.119EPA / dropback+0.322
  • -0.216EPA / rush+0.088
  • 6.9%Explosive rate12.0%
  • +0.20CPOE+3.13
  • 30.8%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 48.5%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.20Points / drive2.90
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYJ @ BAL10–23BAL
2022 · W1BAL @ NYJ24–9BAL
2016 · W7BAL @ NYJ16–24NYJ
2013 · W12NYJ @ BAL3–19BAL
2011 · W4NYJ @ BAL17–34BAL
2010 · W1BAL @ NYJ10–9BAL
2007 · W2NYJ @ BAL13–20BAL
2005 · W4NYJ @ BAL3–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BAL
NYJQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:29984Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 7:49633Missed field goal0–7
BALQ1 5:09561Touchdown0–13
NYJQ1 2:50978Touchdown7–13
BALQ2 13:27837Touchdown7–21
NYJQ2 9:431367Turnover on downs7–21
BALQ2 1:5436Punt7–21
NYJQ2 1:03416Turnover7–21
BALQ2 0:1810End of half7–21
BALQ3 15:0037Punt7–21
NYJQ3 13:2038Punt7–21
BALQ3 11:46521Punt7–21
NYJQ3 8:2159Turnover7–21
BALQ3 5:20224Touchdown7–28
NYJQ3 5:0933Punt7–28
BALQ3 3:56790Touchdown7–35
NYJQ3 0:58418Punt7–35
BALQ4 14:06410Opp touchdown13–35
BALQ4 12:07544Touchdown13–42
NYJQ4 9:58464Touchdown21–42
BALQ4 7:3537Punt21–42
NYJQ4 5:1349Turnover on downs21–42
BALQ4 4:02540End of half21–42

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold18/3221821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell21874.10
Sam Darnold11111.00
Ty Montgomery252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder611902
Robbie Chosen46660
Vyncint Smith35400
Jeff Smith12120
Ty Montgomery1150
Daniel Brown1240
Le'Veon Bell2210

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson15/2321250
Robert Griffin III0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson88610.80
Mark Ingram13765.81
Gus Edwards5357.00
Justice Hill4153.80
Robert Griffin III461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Seth Roberts33661
Mark Andrews47521
Marquise Brown44451
Hayden Hurst12190
Willie Snead11150
Mark Ingram12101
Miles Boykin1151
Patrick Ricard0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +177.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.4%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.99