Closing spread
BAL -17
Total
44
Model margin
+7.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play+0.203
- 37.3%Success rate48.1%
- -0.119EPA / dropback+0.322
- -0.216EPA / rush+0.088
- 6.9%Explosive rate12.0%
- +0.20CPOE+3.13
- 30.8%Third-down rate48.0%
- 48.5%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.20Points / drive2.90
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 18/32 | 218 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 6 | 11 | 90 | 2 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 15/23 | 212 | 5 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 86 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 76 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Roberts | 3 | 3 | 66 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.4%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.99