2016 · Week 7

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

16·24

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 36mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJets
  • -0.060EPA / play-0.069
  • 40.7%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.070
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -0.41CPOE-4.70
  • 38.2%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.40
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. NYJ are 3-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYJ @ BAL10–23BAL
2022 · W1BAL @ NYJ24–9BAL
2019 · W15NYJ @ BAL21–42BAL
2013 · W12NYJ @ BAL3–19BAL
2011 · W4NYJ @ BAL17–34BAL
2010 · W1BAL @ NYJ10–9BAL
2007 · W2NYJ @ BAL13–20BAL
2005 · W4NYJ @ BAL3–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NYJ
BALQ1 15:00511Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:40720Opp touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 9:37623Punt7–0
BALQ1 6:30459Field goal10–0
NYJQ1 4:27676Touchdown10–7
BALQ1 1:121044Field goal13–7
NYJQ2 11:57613Punt13–7
BALQ2 7:50539Punt13–7
NYJQ2 4:34785Touchdown13–14
BALQ2 1:45650Field goal16–14
NYJQ3 15:00530Punt16–14
BALQ3 11:18415Punt16–14
NYJQ3 9:2538Punt16–14
BALQ3 7:522-3Turnover16–14
NYJQ3 7:0334Field goal16–17
BALQ3 5:0030Turnover16–17
NYJQ3 4:03521Touchdown16–17
NYJQ3 1:4314Touchdown16–23
NYJQ3 1:0011Touchdown16–24
BALQ3 0:5635Punt16–24
NYJQ4 14:45721Punt16–24
BALQ4 11:1130Punt16–24
NYJQ4 9:4931Punt16–24
BALQ4 7:373-1Punt16–24
NYJQ4 6:14635Missed field goal16–24
BALQ4 3:04926Turnover on downs16–24
NYJQ4 0:5523End of half16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/4424802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West8101.30
Joe Flacco111.00
Lorenzo Taliaferro100.00
Kenneth Dixon100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace10131200
Kamar Aiken36550
Dennis Pitta410400
Breshad Perriman15110
Chris Moore24110
Lorenzo Taliaferro33100
Kenneth Dixon11-10

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick9/1412010
Geno Smith4/89510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte301003.31
Robbie Chosen13030.00
Bilal Powell4184.50
Geno Smith177.00
Troymaine Pope111.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Enunwa24731
Matt Forte44541
Robbie Chosen33410
Brandon Marshall38390
Charone Peake1280
Brandon Bostick0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.41