Closing spread
NYJ -2
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play-0.069
- 40.7%Success rate40.5%
- -0.041EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.070
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- -0.41CPOE-4.70
- 38.2%Third-down rate36.5%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.63Points / drive1.40
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. NYJ are 3-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/44 | 248 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 10 | 13 | 120 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 4 | 10 | 40 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 9/14 | 120 | 1 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 4/8 | 95 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 30 | 100 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Enunwa | 2 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.41