2022 · Week 1

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

24·9

Jets

New York

QB Joe Flacco

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

BAL -6.5

Total

44

Model margin

+1.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJets
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.086
  • 45.3%Success rate39.1%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback-0.081
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.093
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -1.40CPOE-4.97
  • 42.2%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.41
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. NYJ are 3-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYJ @ BAL10–23BAL
2019 · W15NYJ @ BAL21–42BAL
2016 · W7BAL @ NYJ16–24NYJ
2013 · W12NYJ @ BAL3–19BAL
2011 · W4NYJ @ BAL17–34BAL
2010 · W1BAL @ NYJ10–9BAL
2007 · W2NYJ @ BAL13–20BAL
2005 · W4NYJ @ BAL3–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00424Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:42621Punt0–0
NYJQ1 9:4962Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:0531Punt0–0
NYJQ1 6:01325Turnover0–0
BALQ1 4:5637Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 3:1639Punt3–0
BALQ1 1:53416Punt3–0
NYJQ2 14:45744Missed field goal3–0
BALQ2 10:51514Punt3–0
NYJQ2 8:01618Punt3–0
BALQ2 4:41430Touchdown10–0
NYJQ2 3:45750Field goal10–3
BALQ2 0:2413End of half10–3
BALQ3 15:00611Punt10–3
NYJQ3 12:3834Punt10–3
BALQ3 10:24644Touchdown17–3
NYJQ3 7:1469Punt17–3
BALQ3 4:37588Touchdown24–3
NYJQ3 2:06975Turnover24–3
BALQ4 14:03733Punt24–3
NYJQ4 10:061772Turnover on downs24–3
BALQ4 4:1748Turnover24–3
NYJQ4 2:421348Touchdown24–9
BALQ4 1:0000End of half24–9

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/3021331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake11312.80
Lamar Jackson6172.80
Mike Davis2115.50
Justice Hill242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashod Bateman25591
Devin Duvernay44542
Mark Andrews57520
Demarcus Robinson24190
Kenyan Drake11150
Patrick Ricard1170
Justice Hill2270
Tylan Wallace0100
Isaiah Likely0400

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco37/5930911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter10606.00
Breece Hall6233.80
Joe Flacco100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis610770
Garrett Wilson48520
Elijah Moore57490
Michael Carter79400
Breece Hall69380
Braxton Berrios56370
Tyler Conklin47161
Lawrence Cager0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.22