Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.086
- 45.3%Success rate39.1%
- -0.020EPA / dropback-0.081
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.093
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.40CPOE-4.97
- 42.2%Third-down rate34.3%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
- 1.87Points / drive1.41
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. NYJ are 3-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/30 | 213 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 4 | 4 | 54 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 37/59 | 309 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 6 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 7 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 6 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 7 | 16 | 1 |
| Lawrence Cager | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.22