2013 · Week 12

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

3·19

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 33°F · wind 26mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

38

Model margin

+1.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapRavens
  • -0.105EPA / play-0.096
  • 37.6%Success rate36.3%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback-0.003
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.263
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.4%
  • -4.00CPOE-1.63
  • 38.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.33
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYJ @ BAL10–23BAL
2022 · W1BAL @ NYJ24–9BAL
2019 · W15NYJ @ BAL21–42BAL
2016 · W7BAL @ NYJ16–24NYJ
2011 · W4NYJ @ BAL17–34BAL
2010 · W1BAL @ NYJ10–9BAL
2007 · W2NYJ @ BAL13–20BAL
2005 · W4NYJ @ BAL3–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BAL
NYJQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:42513Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:45855Field goal3–0
BALQ1 6:521063Field goal3–3
NYJQ1 1:5936Punt3–3
BALQ2 14:451084Field goal3–6
NYJQ2 10:1532Turnover3–6
BALQ2 9:1421Turnover3–6
NYJQ2 8:383-1Punt3–6
BALQ2 6:32850Field goal3–9
NYJQ2 1:5643Punt3–9
BALQ2 0:3911End of half3–9
BALQ3 15:0039Punt3–9
NYJQ3 12:5534Punt3–9
BALQ3 11:173-2Field goal3–12
NYJQ3 10:01416Punt3–12
BALQ3 7:323-9Punt3–12
NYJQ3 5:341049Turnover3–12
BALQ3 1:33383Touchdown3–19
NYJQ3 0:053-6Punt3–19
BALQ4 14:095-13Punt3–19
NYJQ4 11:2130Punt3–19
BALQ4 10:54619Punt3–19
NYJQ4 6:48662Turnover3–19
BALQ4 4:15513Punt3–19
NYJQ4 1:02421End of half3–19

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith9/2212702
Josh Cribbs1/21300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell11413.70
Chris Ivory9353.90
Josh Cribbs5204.00
Geno Smith362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Salas23480
Kellen Winslow24340
Bilal Powell34240
Geno Smith11130
Santonio Holmes14120
Jeff Cumberland1290
David Nelson0500
Stephen Hill0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco17/2627311
Tyrod Taylor0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice16301.90
Bernard Pierce11302.70
Tyrod Taylor471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacoby Jones461031
Torrey Smith24740
Ed Dickson35550
Dallas Clark34240
Brandon Stokley1170
Tyrod Taylor1160
Marlon Brown1310
Tandon Doss0100
Ray Rice11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.52