Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
38
Model margin
+1.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.105EPA / play-0.096
- 37.6%Success rate36.3%
- -0.105EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.263
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.4%
- -4.00CPOE-1.63
- 38.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.25Points / drive1.33
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 9/22 | 127 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1/2 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Salas | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/26 | 273 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 16 | 30 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Jones | 4 | 6 | 103 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.52