2011 · Week 4

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

17·34

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 51°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapRavens
  • -0.072EPA / play+0.041
  • 40.3%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.088EPA / rush-0.057
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -3.75CPOE-1.68
  • 35.5%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.79
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYJ @ BAL10–23BAL
2022 · W1BAL @ NYJ24–9BAL
2019 · W15NYJ @ BAL21–42BAL
2016 · W7BAL @ NYJ16–24NYJ
2013 · W12NYJ @ BAL3–19BAL
2010 · W1BAL @ NYJ10–9BAL
2007 · W2NYJ @ BAL13–20BAL
2005 · W4NYJ @ BAL3–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BAL
BALQ1 15:00831Punt0–6
NYJQ1 12:071-4Opp touchdown6–7
NYJQ1 11:5800Touchdown7–7
BALQ1 11:431075Field goal7–10
NYJQ1 6:2740Punt7–10
BALQ1 4:45859Touchdown7–17
NYJQ1 1:14515Turnover7–17
BALQ2 14:1634Field goal7–20
NYJQ2 13:19415Punt7–20
BALQ2 11:3530Punt7–20
NYJQ2 11:0958Opp touchdown7–27
NYJQ2 8:1133Punt7–27
BALQ2 7:153-1Opp touchdown14–27
BALQ2 6:173-6Punt14–27
NYJQ2 4:41835Field goal17–27
BALQ2 2:1431Punt17–27
NYJQ2 1:42310End of half17–27
NYJQ3 15:00628Punt17–27
BALQ3 11:09513Turnover17–33
NYJQ3 9:0310Opp touchdown17–34
NYJQ3 8:49633Punt17–34
BALQ3 6:361249Punt17–34
NYJQ4 14:1033Punt17–34
BALQ4 13:15617Turnover17–34
NYJQ4 9:5120Punt17–34
BALQ4 9:09624Punt17–34
NYJQ4 4:5634Punt17–34
BALQ4 4:3134Punt17–34
NYJQ4 2:1140Turnover on downs17–34
BALQ4 1:5000End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez11/3511901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene10232.30
Mark Sanchez331.00
LaDainian Tomlinson3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason23370
Plaxico Burress38330
Santonio Holmes312330
Dustin Keller28120
LaDainian Tomlinson1340
Jeremy Kerley0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco10/3116301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice25662.61
Ricky Williams12494.10
Joe Flacco3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray Rice25640
Ed Dickson412450
Anquan Boldin12280
Dennis Pitta11140
LaQuan Williams11110
Torrey Smith1610
Ricky Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.32