Closing spread
BAL -5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.041
- 40.3%Success rate41.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.057
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.75CPOE-1.68
- 35.5%Third-down rate42.5%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.44Points / drive1.79
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 11/35 | 119 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 12 | 33 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 10/31 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 25 | 66 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 2 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 4 | 12 | 45 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| LaQuan Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.32