Closing spread
BAL -9.5
Total
33
Model margin
+4.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.108
- 41.4%Success rate40.5%
- -0.065EPA / dropback-0.090
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.5%
- +0.41CPOE+1.46
- 37.1%Third-down rate37.9%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.32Points / drive1.35
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Clemens | 19/37 | 260 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 24 | 67 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 23/35 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 26 | 97 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.98
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.71