Closing spread
BAL -9.5
Total
33
Model margin
+4.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.108
- 41.4%Success rate40.5%
- -0.065EPA / dropback-0.090
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.5%
- +0.41CPOE+1.46
- 37.1%Third-down rate37.9%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.32Points / drive1.35
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.5 points. BAL are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 13:32 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:45 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 11:16 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 9:41 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:36 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q2 13:36 | 7 | 29 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:37 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q2 8:23 | 7 | 32 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:53 | 4 | 15 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q2 2:45 | 11 | 57 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 3–17 |
| BAL | Q3 12:37 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 10:49 | 10 | 26 | Punt | 3–17 |
| BAL | Q3 6:02 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 3–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:13 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–17 |
| BAL | Q3 1:20 | 4 | 42 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:57 | 10 | 38 | Field goal | 6–20 |
| BAL | Q4 10:05 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 6–20 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:47 | 11 | 86 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| BAL | Q4 3:12 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–20 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:38 | 9 | 73 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| BAL | Q4 1:03 | 3 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 13–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Clemens | 19/37 | 260 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 24 | 67 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 23/35 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 26 | 97 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.98
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.71